Table 1.
Parameter estimates
| Name | Description | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| b | Net rate of entrance into the jail [1/day] | −0.004 | Jail dataset |
| β | Transmission rate [1/day] | Calibrated | |
| ε | Incubation period−1 [1/day] | 0.18, Lognormal(5.1, 0.89) | Lauer et al.[5] |
| α | Proportion of cases that are asymptomatic | 0.405, Uniform(0.25, 0.56) | Estimates from other prisons and jails[6,7] |
| γ | Recovery rate [1/day] | 0.1, Infection period: Truncated Normal (10, 6.25, min5, max20) |
Rocklov, Sjödin, and Wilder-Smith[8] |
| η | Proportion of symptomatic infections that are hospitalized | 0.14 | Jail dataset |
| μ | Recovery rate from hospital [1/day] | 0.2 Length of hospitalization: Lognormal(5, 1) | Thevarajan et al.[9] |
| dI | Probability of death due to symptomatic infection | 0.01 | Jail dataset |