Table 2.

Predictive value of 2018 incidence of AHC (1/100 000) based on the three exponentially smooth models

Time(month)	Observed value	Forecast AHC incidence
		Model one	Model two	Model three
January	0.2569	0.0788	0.2337	0.3044
February	0.1886	0.0312	0.2132	0.3370
March	0.3544	0.1090	0.3222	0.5198
April	0.3544	0.2403	0.3403	0.6928
May	0.6439	0.2460	0.4078	0.9432
June	0.5528	0.2870	0.4721	1.0508
July	0.5138	0.3156	0.3608	0.8803
August	0.5756	0.3279	0.3024	0.9099
September	0.3935	1.3254	0.3253	1.2497
October	0.3382	0.1968	0.3253	0.5829
November	0.4292	0.0187	0.3245	0.3295
December	0.4292	0.0308	0.3636	0.2264
MSE	–	0.1396	0.0152	0.1328
MAPE	–	0.7607	0.1871	0.7214