Table 7.
Impact on Estimated Savings of Allowing Provider Composition of ACOs to Change Over Time a
| Estimated Gross Savings in 2015 a | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Differential Change in Spending From Pre‐entry Period to 2015 for ACOs vs. Control Group), $/Patient (95% CI) | ||||||
| ACOs Defined as Sets of TINs | ACOs Defined as Sets of PCPs | |||||
| Entry Cohort | Composition Fixed Over Time, Adjusted b | Composition Allowed to Change, Adjusted b | Composition Allowed to Change, Unadjusted | Composition Fixed Over Time, Adjusted b | Composition Allowed to Change, Adjusted b | Composition Allowed to Change, Unadjusted |
| 2012 | −286 (−431, −142) | −296 (−455, −136) | −307 (−563, −50) | −303 (−408, −199) | −257 (−367, −146) | −243 (−385, −102) |
| 2013 | −115 (−223, −7) | −62 (−185, 61) | 44 (−143, 230) | −167 (−274, −60) | −146 (−251, −41) | −120 (−263, 23) |
| 2014 | −33 (−122, 56) | −116 (−308, 76) | −215 (−456, 26) | −52 (−143, 39) | −12 (−205, 182) | −107 (−334, 120) |
Abbreviations: ACO, accountable care organization; CI, confidence interval; MSSP, Medicare Shared Savings Program.
a
Limited to ACOs still participating in 2015 for which time‐varying ACO definitions are available in the MSSP Provider‐level research identifiable file.
b
Adjusted for patient characteristics.