Table 2.
The parameters estimated in two scenarios. Scenarios 1 and 2 represent that the reproduction number decreased exponentially and remained constant over time, respectively. The parameters include the protective effect of case isolation without time delay (epsilon), the reproduction number at time zero (R0), the exponentially decreasing rate of secondary transmission (delta) and the shape (thetaSS1) and scale (thetaSS2) of the unbiased serial interval. The corresponding mean and s.d of the unbiased serial interval s(τ) are included.
| scenario 1 | scenario 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| parameters | mean (95% CI) | mean (95% CI) |
| epsilon (%) | 39.7 (2.4–82.1) | 67.2 (3.7–94.2) |
| R0 | 10.0 (3.0–18.5) | 3.2 (0.8–16.4) |
| delta (day− 1) | 0.14 (0.07-0.23) | 0 |
| thetaSS1 | 45.0 (19.5–92.0) | 44.6 (18.2-88.2) |
| thetaSS2 | 0.3 (0.2–0.8) | 0.3 (0.2–0.9) |
| s(τ) mean (day) | 15.3 (14.2–16.6) | 15.3 (14.2, 16.6) |
| s(τ) s.d. (day) | 2.3 (1.6–3.5) | 2.3 (1.6, 3.6) |