Box 3.

NBP3: Self-sufficiency first—Building walls

The world is characterized by rising regional rivalry driven by growing nationalistic forces and the Nordic countries have become allies in a fragmented Europe. International trade is strongly constrained and policies are oriented towards security, while there is low priority for environmental issues. The importance of developing the Nordic bioeconomy therefore becomes a matter of regional security, placing self-sufficiency aims high up on the agenda. Energy consumption is high and prevailing Nordic energy systems and supplies such as hydropower and Norwegian oil are expanded. There is also a moderate rising trend in domestic bioenergy production, including biofuels mainly produced from organic waste and forest harvesting residues. Technology development is, however, slow in all sectors. Strategies for increased self-sufficiency of food, feed and bioenergy focus on intensifying conventional agricultural practices as well as expansion of arable land where possible. A rise in domestic meat production and meat rich diets are supported by more specialized and concentrated livestock operations. Nordic forest management is also intensified and there is a low priority for environmental considerations. Due to lack of international cooperation, low environmental awareness and material intensive consumption patterns there are high challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation.