Table 2.

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of inflammatory PBL gene expression biomarkers to radiographic fast progressors of JSN (> 0.5 mm) at 24 months in patients with SKOA in NYU extended and OAI cohorts

Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm)	AUC (95% CI)	Adjusted p value for model
NYU (n = 243)
Age	0.48 (0.39–0.56)	0.711
Sex	0.62 (0.54–0.71)	0.001
BMI	0.61 (0.53–0.69)	0.004
Age + sex + BMI (ASB)	0.65 (0.57–0.73)	< 0.0001
IL-1β	0.62 (0.53–0.70)	0.003
COX-2	0.68 (0.60–0.75)	< 0.0001
TNFα	0.66 (0.57–0.74)	< 0.0001
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα	0.60 (0.5 2–0.69)	0.008
IL-1β + ASB	0.65 (0.57–0.73)	< 0.0001
COX-2 + ASB	0.66 (0.58–0.74)	< 0.0001
TNFα + ASB	0.64 (0.56–0.72)	< 0.0001
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ASB	0.66 (0.58–0.74)	< 0.0001
OAI (n = 203)
Age	0.38 (0.27–0.49)	0.987
Sex	0.50 (0.39–0.61)	0.482
BMI	0.38 (0.27–0.48)	0.989
Age + sex + BMI (ASB)	0.36 (0.26–0.47)	0.995
IL-1β	0.76 (0.66–0.85)	< 0.0001
COX-2	0.64 (0.53–0.75)	0.006
TNFα	0.68 (0.58–0.79)	< 0.0001
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα	0.69 (0.59–0.79)	< 0.0001
IL-1β + ASB	0.63 (0.53–0.73)	0.007
COX-2 + ASB	0.50 (0.38–0.61)	0.513
TNFα + ASB	0.56 (0.45–0.67)	0.158
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ASB	0.59 (0.48–0.69)	0.063
NYU + OAI combined (n = 436)
Age	0.47 (0.40–0.54)	0.822
Sex	0.56 (0.49–0.63)	0.039
BMI	0.57 (0.50–0.64)	0.021
Age + sex + BMI (ASB)	0.57 (0.50–0.63)	0.019
IL-1β	0.66 (0.60–0.72)	< 0.0001
COX-2	0.66 (0.59–0.72)	< 0.0001
TNFα	0.67 (0.60–0.73)	< 0.0001
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα	0.63 (0.57–0.70)	< 0.0001
IL-1β + ASB	0.60 (0.54–0.67)	0.001
COX-2 + ASB	0.59 (0.53–0.66)	0.003
TNFα + ASB	0.57 (0.50–0.64)	0.019
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ASB	0.61 (0.54–0.68)	0.001

ASB age, sex, and BMI, JSN joint space narrowing, SKOA symptomatic knee OA, AUC area under the (receiver operating characteristic) curve, 95% CI 95% confidence interval; All comparisons are versus non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0 mm). NYU cohort: non-progressors (n = 115) and fast progressors (n = 72); OAI cohort: non-progressors (n = 76) and fast progressors (n = 44)