Table 5.
The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) comparing baseline PBL inflammatory gene expression biomarkers, with and without medial BML, to predict 24-month fast radiographic knee OA progression in the combined NYU and OAI cohorts
| NYU + OAI combined–biomarkers | Biomarkers + baseline medial BML | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm) |
AUC (95% CI) | Adjusted p value for model | Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm) |
AUC (95% CI) | p value for model | p value for model performance increase |
| Age | 0.46 (0.38–0.54) | 0.27 | Age | 0.62 (0.54–0.69) | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Sex | 0.52 (0.44–0.60) | 0.31 | Sex | 0.60 (0.52–0.68) | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| BMI | 0.54 (0.46–0.62) | 0.27 | BMI | 0.61 (0.53–0.69) | 0.005 | 0.041 |
| ASB | 0.50 (0.42–0.58) | 0.498 | ASB | 0.59 (0.51–0.67) | 0.014 | 0.016 |
| COX-2 | 0.61 (0.53–0.68) | 0.015 | COX-2 | 0.65 (0.58–0.73) | < 0.0001 | 0.074 |
| IL-1β | 0.57 (0.49–0.65) | 0.081 | IL-1β | 0.62 (0.54–0.70) | 0.004 | 0.088 |
| TNFα | 0.50 (0.42–0.58) | 0.498 | TNFα | 0.59 (0.51–0.67) | 0.020 | 0.021 |
| IL1β + COX2 | 0.56 (0.48–0.64) | 0.094 | IL1β + COX2 | 0.61 (0.54–0.69) | 0.005 | 0.085 |
| IL1β + TNFα | 0.52 (0.43–0.60) | 0.381 | IL1β + TNFα | 0.60 (0.52–0.68) | 0.011 | 0.024 |
| COX2 + TNFα | 0.57 (0.49–0.65) | 0.081 | COX2 + TNFα | 0.62 (0.54–0.69) | 0.005 | 0.136 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα | 0.62 (0.54–0.69) | 0.007 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα | 0.66 (0.58–0.73) | < 0.0001 | 0.114 |
| Baseline BML | 0.59 (0.51–0.67) | 0.035 | Baseline BML | |||
| Osteophytes MFC | 0.47 (0.39–0.55) | 0.309 | Osteophytes MFC | 0.57 (0.49–0.65) | 0.035 | 0.010 |
| Osteophytes MTP | 0.48 (0.40–0.56) | 0.356 | Osteophytes MTP | 0.58 (0.50–0.66) | 0.035 | 0.011 |
| Osteophytes LFC | 0.58 (0.50–0.66) | 0.072 | Osteophytes LFC | 0.61 (0.53–0.69) | 0.005 | 0.096 |
| Osteophytes LTP | 0.47 (0.39–0.55) | 0.309 | Osteophytes LTP | 0.58 (0.50–0.66) | 0.029 | 0.007 |
| Osteophytes MFC + MTP | 0.46 (0.38–0.54) | 0.207 | Osteophytes MFC + MTP | 0.57 (0.48–0.65) | 0.056 | 0.006 |
| Osteophytes LFC + LTP | 0.57 (0.49–0.65) | 0.081 | Osteophytes LFC + LTP | 0.61 (0.53–0.69) | 0.006 | 0.083 |
| ALL osteophytes | 0.57 (0.49–0.65) | 0.081 | ALL osteophytes | 0.61 (0.53–0.69) | 0.005 | 0.064 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP | 0.59 (0.51–0.67) | 0.038 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP | 0.63 (0.55–0.71) | 0.002 | 0.114 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP | 0.67 (0.59–0.74) | < 0.0001 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP | 0.68 (0.60–0.76) | < 0.0001 | 0.271 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes | 0.67 (0.59–0.74) | < 0.0001 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes | 0.68 (0.61–0.76) | < 0.0001 | 0.223 |
| ALL markers | 0.68 (0.61–0.76) | < 0.0001 | ||||
ASB age, sex, and BMI, PBL peripheral blood leukocyte, BML bone marrow lesion, JSN joint space narrowing, COX-2 cyclooxygenase-2, IL-1β interleukin-1 beta, TNFα tumor necrosis factor alpha, 95% CI 95% confidence intervals. Medial (MTP) and lateral (LTP) osteophytes in tibial plateau and medial (MFC) and lateral (LFC) femoral condyle. All comparisons are versus non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0 mm). Significant p values are represented in bold font. Total number of progressors (n = 85) and non-progressors (n = 115) in the combined cohort