Table 6.
The odds ratios (OR) comparing baseline inflammatory PBL inflammatory gene expression biomarkers and osteophytes with and without medial BML to predict 24-month fast radiographic knee OA progression in the combined NYU and OAI cohorts
| Biomarkers | Biomarkers + baseline medial BML | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm) | Odds ratio | 95% CI | Adjusted p value for model | Biomarkers + baseline medial BML | Odds ratio | 95% CI | Adjusted p value for model | p value for increase |
| Age | 1 | (1.0–1.0) | 0.769 | Age | 2.46 | (1.32–4.6) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| Sex | 1 | (1.0–1.0) | 0.678 | Sex | 2.29 | (1.24–4.23) | 0.007 | 0.002 |
| BMI | 1 | (1.0–1.0) | 0.151 | BMI | 2.15 | (1.17–3.96) | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| COX-2 | 3.56 | (0.92–13.72) | 0.019 | COX-2 | 8.64 | (1.36–54.84) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| IL-1β | 1.90 | (0.56–6.41) | 0.074 | IL-1β | 4.09 | (0.753–22.230) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| TNFα | 1.12 | (0.78–1.63) | 0.696 | TNFα | 3.11 | (1.19–8.14) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| IL1β + COX2 | 1.94 | (0.71–5.27) | 0.058 | IL1β + COX2 | 4.03 | (0.89–18.23) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| IL1β + TNFα | 1.37 | (0.71–2.65) | 0.212 | IL1β + TNFα | 3.27 | (0.94–11.32) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| COX2 + TNFα | 1.21 | (0.79–1.85) | 0.293 | COX2 + TNFα | 2.74 | (1.07–7.04) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα | 6.35 | (0.40–101.55) | 0.033 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα | 17.37 | (0.54–560.39) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| Baseline BML | 2.43 | (1.44–4.08) | < 0.0001 | Baseline BML | ||||
| Osteophytes MFC | 1.42 | (0.96–2.08) | 0.102 | Osteophytes MFC | 2.82 | (1.12–7.09) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| Osteophytes MTP | 1.01 | (0.71–1.45) | 0.884 | Osteophytes MTP | 3.03 | (1.20–7.68) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| Osteophytes LFC | 1.80 | (1.19–2.73) | 0.006 | Osteophytes LFC | 3.82 | (1.485–9.820) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| Osteophytes LTP | 1.25 | (0.86–1.81) | 0.226 | Osteophytes LTP | 3.83 | (1.452–10.107) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| Osteophytes MFC + MTP | 1.78 | (0.76–4.14) | 0.212 | Osteophytes MFC + MTP | 4.72 | (1.12–19.87) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| Osteophytes LFC + LTP | 3.35 | (1.35–8.30) | 0.002 | Osteophytes LFC + LTP | 9.14 | (1.98–42.32) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| ALL osteophytes | 4.20 | (0.60–29.65) | 0.007 | ALL osteophytes | 12.10 | (0.83–177.02) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP | 11.27 | (0.27–467.4) | 0.038 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP | 30.58 | (0.37–2532.1) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP | 62.06 | (1.15–3365.4) | < 0.0001 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP | 232.9 | (1.85–29,402.2) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes | 69.48 | (0.40–12,199.8) | < 0.0001 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes | 310.3 | (0.67–142,727.2) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
| ALL markers | 310.26 | (0.67–142,727.2) | < 0.0001 | NaN | ||||
PBL peripheral blood leukocyte, BML bone marrow lesion, JSN joint space narrowing, COX-2 cyclooxygenase-2, IL-1β interleukin-1 beta, TNFα tumor necrosis factor alpha, 95% CI 95% confidence intervals. All comparisons are versus non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0 mm). Medial (MTP) and lateral (LTP) osteophytes in tibial plateau and medial (MFC) and lateral (LFC) femoral condyle. Total number of progressors (n = 66) and non-progressors (n = 63) in the combined cohort