Table 7.
The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) comparing baseline PBL inflammatory gene expression biomarkers, with and without medial BML, to predict 24-month fast radiographic knee OA progression in the NYU cohort (N = 111)
| Biomarkers | Biomarkers + baseline medial BML | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm) | AUC (95% CI) | Adjusted p value for model | Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm) | AUC (95% CI) | Adjusted p value for model | p value for model performance increase |
| Age | 0.41 (0.28–0.53) | 0.102 | Age | 0.69 (0.57–0.80) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Sex | 0.53 (0.41–0.66) | 0.305 | Sex | 0.62 (0.50–0.74) | 0.024 | 0.021 |
| BMI | 0.60 (0.48–0.72) | 0.102 | BMI | 0.67 (0.56–0.79) | 0.003 | 0.102 |
| ASB | 0.56 (0.44–0.69) | 0.229 | ASB | 0.65 (0.53–0.77) | 0.015 | 0.075 |
| COX-2 | 0.68 (0.56–0.80) | 0.005 | COX-2 | 0.74 (0.63–0.85) | < 0.0001 | 0.063 |
| IL-1β | 0.57 (0.44–0.69) | 0.229 | IL-1β | 0.65 (0.53–0.77) | 0.015 | 0.073 |
| TNFα | 0.55 (0.42–0.67) | 0.255 | TNFα | 0.63 (0.51–0.75) | 0.020 | 0.068 |
| IL1β + COX2 | 0.58 (0.46–0.71) | 0.209 | IL1β + COX2 | 0.65 (0.53–0.77) | 0.015 | 0.109 |
| IL1β + TNFα | 0.56 (0.43–0.68) | 0.229 | IL1β + TNFα | 0.64 (0.52–0.76) | 0.016 | 0.073 |
| COX2 + TNFα | 0.54 (0.41–0.66) | 0.287 | COX2 + TNFα | 0.63 (0.51–0.75) | 0.020 | 0.066 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα | 0.67 (0.55–0.79) | 0.009 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα | 0.74 (0.63–0.85) | < 0.0001 | 0.038 |
| Baseline BML | 0.65 (0.53–0.77) | 0.020 | Baseline BML | 0.65 (0.53–0.77) | 0.015 | 1.000 |
| Osteophytes MFC | 0.56 (0.44–0.68) | 0.229 | Osteophytes MFC | 0.63 (0.51–0.75) | 0.020 | 0.075 |
| Osteophytes MTP | 0.58 (0.45–0.70) | 0.220 | Osteophytes MTP | 0.63 (0.51–0.76) | 0.020 | 0.128 |
| Osteophytes LFC | 0.57 (0.44–0.69) | 0.229 | Osteophytes LFC | 0.64 (0.52–0.76) | 0.017 | 0.095 |
| Osteophytes LTP | 0.53 (0.41–0.66) | 0.309 | Osteophytes LTP | 0.65 (0.53–0.77) | 0.015 | 0.034 |
| Osteophytes MFC + MTP | 0.55 (0.42–0.68) | 0.249 | Osteophytes MFC + MTP | 0.61 (0.49–0.74) | 0.035 | 0.095 |
| Osteophytes LFC + LTP | 0.59 (0.46–0.71) | 0.209 | Osteophytes LFC + LTP | 0.65 (0.53–0.77) | 0.015 | 0.072 |
| ALL osteophytes | 0.57 (0.44–0.69) | 0.229 | ALL osteophytes | 0.62 (0.49–0.74) | 0.035 | 0.101 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP | 0.68 (0.57–0.80) | 0.005 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP | 0.72 (0.61–0.83) | < 0.0001 | 0.126 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP | 0.70 (0.59–0.82) | 0.003 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP | 0.75 (0.64–0.85) | < 0.0001 | 0.074 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes | 0.70 (0.58–0.81) | 0.003 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes | 0.73 (0.62–0.84) | < 0.0001 | 0.135 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + BML + ALL osteophytes | 0.73 (0.62–0.83) | < 0.0001 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + BML + ALL osteophytes | 0.73 (0.62–0.84) | < 0.0001 | 1.000 |
| Meniscus sum | 0.55 (0.43–0.68) | 0.244 | Meniscus sum | 0.63 (0.51–0.75) | 0.020 | 0.084 |
| IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + Meniscus sum | 0.69 (0.58–0.81) | 0.003 | IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + Meniscus sum | 0.73 (0.62–0.83) | < 0.0001 | 0.152 |
ASB age, sex, and BMI, PBL peripheral blood leukocyte, BML bone marrow lesion, JSN joint space narrowing, COX-2 cyclooxygenase-2, IL-1β interleukin-1 beta, TNFα tumor necrosis factor alpha, 95% CI 95% confidence intervals. Medial (MTP) and lateral (LTP) osteophytes in tibial plateau and medial (MFC) and lateral (LFC) femoral condyle. All comparisons are versus non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0 mm). Total number of progressors (n = 44) and non-progressors (n = 39)