Table 2.

Sensitivity of the three-stage model.

Date	Number of 5% most vulnerable counties identified on a given date (with 0 confirmed cases)	Number of counties that reported cases after 5 days	Sensitivity, %
14/3/2020	92	61	66.30
15/3/2020	119	90	75.63
16/3/2020	151	99	65.56
17/3/2020	199	144	72.36
18/3/2020	144	110	76.39
19/3/2020	176	115	65.34
20/3/2020	198	146	73.74
21/3/2020	166	125	75.30
22/3/2020	158	120	75.95
23/3/2020	84	66	78.57
24/3/2020	89	65	73.03
25/3/2020	336	208	61.90
26/3/2020	104	72	69.23