Fig. 6.

Out-of-sample forecasts for Illinois in the next 30 days. (a) Observed daily confirmed cases (solid red line), and posterior medians (dashed line) and 95% credible intervals (grey band) for (B^∗| B, I₀^D). (b) Posterior medians (solid red line) and 95% credible intervals (red band) for [ℛ_e(0), …, ℛ_e(T)| B, I₀^D], and posterior medians (dashed line), posterior draws (thin grey lines) and 95% credible intervals (blue band) for [ℛ_e(T + 1), …, ℛ_e(T + T^∗)| B^tr, I₀^D]. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)