Appendix 1—table 10. Model results for GAMs of mean incidence (per 1000 people) of West Nile neuroinvasive disease as a function of average summer temperature.
Statistics for models fit with differing numbers of knots: edf (estimated degrees of freedom), Ref-df, F, and p-value refer to the smoothed temperature term (see Fig A24 for plots). Dev. exp. = percent deviance explained. Topt = temperature of peak incidence.
| Panel in Fig A24 | # knots | edf | Ref-df | F | p-value | Adj. R2 | Dev. exp. (%) | Topt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | k = 4 | 2.96 | 2.99 | 15.87 | 4.03·10−10 | 0.018 | 2.33 | 23.8°C |
| B | k = 5 | 3.77 | 3.97 | 11.11 | 4.64·10−9 | 0.019 | 2.44 | 24.2°C |
| C | k = 6 | 4.71 | 4.96 | 11.97 | 4.77·10−11 | 0.022 | 2.85 | 23.5°C |
| D | k = 7 | 5.53 | 5.92 | 11.01 | 1.31·10−11 | 0.024 | 3.11 | 23.6°C |
| E | k = 8 | 6.55 | 6.93 | 11.12 | 2.73·10−13 | 0.026 | 3.62 | 24.1°C |
| F | k = 9 | 7.19 | 7.80 | 10.06 | 3.17·10−13 | 0.026 | 3.67 | 24.2°C |