Table 2.
Poisson regression of mortality rates in 84 countries involved in the World Values Survey during a 30-day period after recording the tenth COVID-19 death (as of September 3, 2020).
| Bivariate associations (Model 1) |
Mutually adjusted (Model 2) |
Mutually adjusted (Model 3) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRR (SE) | 95% CI | IRR (SE) | 95% CI | IRR (SE) | 95% CI | |
| Population (millions) | 4.01 (0.04) | 3.94, 4.08 | 12.29 (0.18) | 11.95, 12.64 | 16.20 (0.25) | 15.72, 16.70 |
| Country wealth | 1.03 (0.00) | 1.03, 1.03 | 1.05 (0.00) | 1.05, 1.05 | 1.04 (0.00) | 1.04, 1.04 |
| Income inequality | 5.97 (0.08) | 5.68, 5.90 | 1.65 (0.08) | 1.50, 1.81 | 1.67 (0.07) | (1.53, 1.82) |
| Social capital | ||||||
| Social trust | 7.92 (0.05) | 7.83, 8.01 | 3.38 (0.08) | 3.22, 3.54 | 1.73 (0.04) | 1.65, 1.81 |
| Group affiliations | 3.90 (0.03) | 3.85, 3.95 | 0.56 (0.01) | 0.54, 0.58 | 1.09 (0.02) | 1.05, 1.14 |
| Civic engagement | 2.84 (0.01) | 2.82, 2.87 | 4.91 (0.11) | 4.70, 5.13 | 0.73 (0.02) | 0.69, 0.78 |
| Confidence in state institutions | 3.49 (0.02) | 3.44, 3.53 | 0.01 (0.00) | 0.00, 0.01 | 0.01 (0.00) | 0.01, 0.01 |
| WVS cycle (ref. 5) | ||||||
| Cycle 6 | 1.82 (0.01) | 1.80, 1.85 | 0.41 (0.00) | 0.40, 0.42 | 0.53 (0.01) | 0.52, 0.54 |
| Cycle 7 | 1.32 (0.01) | 1.31, 1.34 | 0.45 (0.01) | 0.43, 0.46 | 0.46 (0.01) | 0.45, 0.47 |
| Population over 65 years (%) |
1.08 (0.00) |
1.07, 1.08 |
1.09 (0.00) |
1.09, 1.09 |
||
| Goodness-of-fit: | (Empty model) | (Model 2) | (Model 3) | |||
| Deviance | 273 419.47 | 161 804.54 | 154 027.04 | |||
| Dispersion | 109.807 | 64.98 | 61.85 | |||
| Pearson χ2 | 703 286.66 | 294 888.22 | 304 138.67 | |||
| Dispersion Pearson χ2 | 282.444 | 118.43 | 122.14 | |||
| Wald χ2 | -- | 249 658.63 | 258 961.92 | |||
Note: IRR = Incidence rate ratio. CI = confidence interval. WVS = World Values Survey. Sample includes 2490 daily observations (average: 29.6 days per country). Country wealth (gross national income per capita) is measured constant 2017 international dollars (thousands). Lower deviance and dispersion indicate better model fit.