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. 2020 Sep 15;10:15065. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-72137-w

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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ABM in predicting adoption peaks in towns. (A) Prediction Error in town i is the peak month predicted by the ABM minus the month of empirical peak. Negative Prediction Error denotes early prediction and positive means late prediction. (B) Correlation of Prediction Error of ABM (h = 0.0, l = 0.0) and ABM (h = 0.2, l = 0.2) ( $ρ = 0.39$ , CI [0.36; 0.43]). (C) Estimation of town-level Prediction Error of ABM versions via a simple linear regression. Independent variables are characteristics from networks within towns and geographical characteristics of towns. Symbols represent point estimates and horizontal lines denote standard errors.