Table 3.
Hazard ratios for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) by quintiles of mtDNA copy number
| N events/N total | IR | Model 1* | Model 2† | Model 3‡ | Model 4§ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIC | ||||||
| mtDNA-CN quintiles | ||||||
| First | 399/2029 | 10.9 | 1.26 (1.09, 1.46) | 1.21 (1.05, 1.40) | 1.20 (1.04, 1.39) | 1.17 (0.99, 1.38) |
| Second | 355/2035 | 9.5 | 1.09 (0.94, 1.27) | 1.11 (0.95, 1.29) | 1.10 (0.94, 1.27) | 1.18 (1.00, 1.40) |
| Third | 319/2037 | 8.5 | 0.97 (0.83, 1.13) | 0.93 (0.80, 1.09) | 0.94 (0.80, 1.09) | 0.89 (0.74, 1.06) |
| Fourth | 356/2031 | 9.3 | 1.07 (0.92, 1.24) | 1.08 (0.93, 1.25) | 1.08 (0.93, 1.25) | 1.08 (0.91, 1.28) |
| Fifth | 332/2017 | 8.9 | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| p-trend | 0.002 | 0.008 | 0.01 | 0.03 | ||
| 10th vs 90th percentile | 1761/10,149 | 9.4 | 1.20 (1.07, 1.34) | 1.18 (1.05, 1.31) | 1.16 (1.04, 1.30) | 1.18 (1.04, 1.33) |
| MESA | ||||||
| mtDNA-CN quintiles | ||||||
| First | 157/1154 | 12.4 | 1.04 (0.83, 1.30) | 1.02 (0.82, 1.28) | 1.01 (0.81, 1.26) | 1.14 (0.90, 1.45) |
| Second | 150/1154 | 11.6 | 1.01 (0.81, 1.27) | 0.99 (0.79, 1.24) | 0.97 (0.78, 1.22) | 1.06 (0.83, 1.36) |
| Third | 161/1166 | 12.3 | 1.04 (0.83, 1.30) | 1.02 (0.82, 1.28) | 1.02 (0.82, 1.27) | 1.10 (0.87, 1.40) |
| Fourth | 169/1159 | 13.1 | 1.08 (0.87, 1.34) | 1.05 (0.84, 1.31) | 1.04 (0.83, 1.29) | 1.10 (0.87, 1.39) |
| Fifth | 153/1148 | 11.8 | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| p-trend | 0.91 | 0.98 | 0.88 | 0.37 | ||
| 10th vs 90th percentile | 790/5781 | 12.2 | 1.05 (0.88, 1.25) | 1.03 (0.87, 1.23) | 1.03 (0.86, 1.23) | 1.12 (0.93, 1.35) |
| CHS | ||||||
| mtDNA-CN quintiles | ||||||
| First | 283/755 | 32.0 | 1.16 (0.98,1.38) | 1.16 (0.98,1.37) | 1.11 (0.93,1.31) | 1.08 (0.89,1.32) |
| Second | 292/756 | 31.9 | 1.12 (0.95,1.32) | 1.12 (0.95,1.32) | 1.09 (0.92,1.28) | 1.12 (0.92,1.35) |
| Third | 296/756 | 31.8 | 1.10 (0.94,1.30) | 1.10 (0.94,1.30) | 1.08 (0.92,1.28) | 1.09 (0.90,1.32) |
| Fourth | 317/756 | 33.6 | 1.19 (1.01,1.39) | 1.18 (1.00,1.39) | 1.15 (0.98,1.35) | 1.20 (1.00,1.45) |
| Fifth | 282/756 | 29.0 | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| p-trend | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0.65 | ||
| 10th vs 90th percentile | 1470/3779 | 31.6 | 1.12 (0.98,1.27) | 1.11 (0.97,1.27) | 1.07 (0.94,1.23) | 1.07 (0.92,1.26) |
| Meta-analysis | ||||||
| mtDNA-CN quintiles | ||||||
| First | 839/3938 | 14.4 | 1.18 (1.07, 1.30) | 1.15 (1.05, 1.27) | 1.13 (1.02, 1.25) | 1.13 (1.01, 1.27) |
| Second | 797/3945 | 13.4 | 1.09 (0.98, 1.20) | 1.09 (0.99, 1.20) | 1.07 (0.97, 1.18) | 1.13 (1.01, 1.27) |
| Third | 776/3959 | 12.9 | 1.03 (0.93, 1.14) | 1.01 (0.92, 1.21) | 1.00 (0.91, 1.11) | 1.01 (0.90, 1.13) |
| Fourth | 842/3946 | 13.9 | 1.12 (1.01, 1.23) | 1.11 (1.00, 1.22) | 1.10 (0.99, 1.21) | 1.13 (1.01, 1.26) |
| Fifth | 767/3921 | 12.8 | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| p-trend | 0.006 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.03 | ||
| 10th vs 90th percentile | 4021/19,709 | 13.5 | 1.14 (1.06, 1.23) | 1.13 (1.04, 1.22) | 1.11 (1.03, 1.20) | 1.13 (1.04, 1.24) |
IR incidence rate (per 1000 person-years)
*Model 1: adjusted for age, sex, and race/enrollment center groups
†Model 2: further adjusted for body mass index, height, smoking, alcohol intake, and physical activity
‡Model 3: further adjusted for total and HDL cholesterol, cholesterol medication, hypertension, diabetes, prevalent heart failure, and eGFR at baseline
§Model 4: further adjusted for log-transformed NT-proBNP