. 2020 Aug 8;22(8):1355–1370. doi: 10.1111/jch.13937

TABLE 6.

Characteristics of included modeling studies undertaken between January 2009 and November 2019 (n = 3)

Author, year, and design	Country	Intervention	Outcome measure	Summary result
Aminde et al ²⁸ Modeling study	Cameroon	Reducing current salt intake levels	Changes in CVD burden in adult Cameroonians	Reducing salt intake by 30% could reduce the probability of premature CVD mortality from 16.7% in 2016 to 13.9% (13.8%–14.2%) in 2030, corresponding to a 16.8% (percentage change) reduction and could gain over 700 000 health‐adjusted life years (HALYs).
Bertram et al ⁵⁷ Modeling study	South Africa	Reducing sodium content of bread by 342 mg/100 g, margarine by 61%, soup mix by 69%, and seasoning by 51%	Change in sodium intake, effect on the population distribution of BP, consequent number of CVD deaths, and nonfatal strokes that could be avoided annually	Reducing the sodium content of high‐salt foods would prevent 7400 deaths in SA each year—6400 from reducing the sodium content of bread alone. This includes deaths related to stroke (2900), ischemic heart disease (2500), and hypertensive heart disease (2000). Furthermore, approximately 4300 nonfatal strokes would be prevented
Watkins et al ⁵⁸ Cost‐effectiveness analysis	South Africa	South Africa's salt reduction policy implementation	(a) Defining the population at risk of CVD due to high salt intake using current levels of salt consumption and blood pressure, then estimating (b) the impact of the salt reduction policy on population blood pressure levels, (c) the subsequent change in incidence and mortality from CVD, (d) the reduction in expenditures on CVD attributable to lower incidence, (e) the financial risk protection (FRP) provided by the policy, and (f) the distributional impact of the policy by income quintile.	Salt policy could reduce CVD deaths by 11%, with similar health gains across income quintiles. In a model cohort of 1 million South African adults, the policy averted 403 deaths and 1680 cases of CVD per year. In total, approximately US$ 295 000 per year in OOP expenditures on CVD were averted in the cohort, ranging from US$ 0.02 per capita in the poorest quintile to US$ 1.11 per capita in the richest quintile. The policy could save households US$ 4.06 million (2012) in OOP expenditures (US$ 0.29 per capita) and save the government US$ 51.25 million in health care subsidies (US$ 2.52 per capita) each year.

Author, year, and design

Country

Intervention

Outcome measure

Summary result

Aminde et al ²⁸

Modeling study

Cameroon

Reducing current salt intake levels

Changes in CVD burden in adult Cameroonians

Reducing salt intake by 30% could reduce the probability of premature CVD mortality from 16.7% in 2016 to 13.9% (13.8%–14.2%) in 2030, corresponding to a 16.8% (percentage change) reduction and could gain over 700 000 health‐adjusted life years (HALYs).

Bertram et al ⁵⁷

Modeling study

South Africa

Reducing sodium content of bread by 342 mg/100 g, margarine by 61%, soup mix by 69%, and seasoning by 51%

Change in sodium intake, effect on the population distribution of BP, consequent number of CVD deaths, and nonfatal strokes that could be avoided annually

Reducing the sodium content of high‐salt foods would prevent 7400 deaths in SA each year—6400 from reducing the sodium content of bread alone. This includes deaths related to stroke (2900), ischemic heart disease (2500), and hypertensive heart disease (2000). Furthermore, approximately 4300 nonfatal strokes would be prevented

Watkins et al ⁵⁸

Cost‐effectiveness analysis

South Africa

South Africa's salt reduction policy implementation

(a) Defining the population at risk of CVD due to high salt intake using current levels of salt consumption and blood pressure, then estimating (b) the impact of the salt reduction policy on population blood pressure levels, (c) the subsequent change in incidence and mortality

from CVD, (d) the reduction in expenditures on CVD attributable to lower incidence, (e) the financial risk protection (FRP) provided by the policy, and (f) the distributional impact of the policy by income quintile.

Salt policy could reduce CVD deaths by 11%, with similar health gains across income quintiles. In a model cohort of 1 million South African adults, the policy averted 403 deaths and 1680 cases of CVD per year.
In total, approximately US$ 295 000 per year in OOP expenditures on CVD were averted in the cohort, ranging from US$ 0.02 per capita in the poorest quintile to US$ 1.11 per capita in the richest quintile.
The policy could save households US$ 4.06 million (2012) in OOP expenditures (US$ 0.29 per capita) and save the government US$ 51.25 million in health care subsidies (US$ 2.52 per capita) each year.