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. 2020 Aug 1;19(7):661–686. doi: 10.1080/14760584.2020.1791093

Table 3.

Populations modeled in dynamic transmission models in 83 papers by group, showing population size (N, in millions (M)) (for the time or time series used) and basic reproduction number (R0), if reported.

Population KRI IC IDM Other
Global N = 6,826–8,072 M (2010–2029), R0 = 4–13 by WBIL [18, 20]
N = 2,526–9,640 M (1950–2100), R0 = 4–13 by WBIL for WPV1, WPV1*0.9 for WPV2, WPV1*0.75 for WPV3 [4, 50–62, 65, 77, 81]		      
Country group*        

  • 104 GPEI countries

 N = 3,600 M in 1988, R0 = 7.5 (LI), 9.5 (LMI), 11.5 (UMI) [25]      

  • Low-income countries

 N = 2,933–3,992 M (2010–2029), R0 = 10 or 13 [19, 22]      

  • 16 African countries

       R0 = 1.2–3 for cVDPV2 [133]

  • European countries

       [164]

  • Importation countries

       N = 613 M (2013), R0 = V [157]
GPEI polio-endemic countries (as of 2006)

  • India (Uttar Pradesh and Bihar)

 N = 247 M (2006), R0 = 16 [19]
N = 54–224 M (1950–2100), R0 = 13 [33]
N = 55–224 M (1950–2100), R0 = 13 [35, 36, 46]		   [134]  

  • Nigeria

 N = 9.7–186 M (northwest zone, 1950–2100), R0 = 8 [33]
N = 9.7–234 M (northwest zone, 1950–2100), R0 = 7.5 [35, 40, 46, 49, 64]		 N = 0.01 M, R0 = 5 [100] [133]
N = 0.3 M [129]
N = 1.8 M (Kano, 2016), R0 = V [132]		  

  • Pakistan and/or Afghanistan

 N = 45–422 M (1950–2100), R0 = 11 [71, 73–76]      
Other countries modeled by at least one GPEI-supported modeling group

  • Israel

 N = 1.3–15 M (1950–2100), R0 = 5–6 [43, 46, 47]     N = 0.050–0.067 M (2012–2014), R0 = 1–10 [162]
N = 100%, R0 = 1.62 [166]

  • Tajikistan

 N = 1.5–11 M (1950–2100), R0 = 7–8 [33]
N = 1.5–21 M (1950–2100), R0 = 8 [35, 46]		 N = 5.6 M, R0 = 2.16–2.46 [98]
N = 5.6 M, R0 = 2.58 [99]		    

  • United States of America

 N = 145–570 M (1950–2100), R0 = 6 [9]
N = 318–346 M (2010–2020), R0 = 6 [26]
N = 158–478 M (1950–2100), R0 = 5 [33]
N = 0.276 M (2013 Amish), R0 = 5 [41]
N = 158–462 M (1950–2100), R0 = 5 [47]		   Houston, Louisiana [134] N = 0.05–0.09 (deployed military personnel 2015–2025), R0 = V [163]
R0 = V [158]
Other countries modeled

  • Albania

 N = 3.2 M (1996), R0 = 11 [10]
N = 1.2–1.8 M (1950–2100), R0 = 11 [33]		      

  • Bangladesh (Matlab)

     N = 0.13 M (2012) [135]  

  • Cuba

 N = 5.9–7.0 M (1950–2100), R0 = 8 [33]      

  • Dominican Republic

 N = 3.6 M (2000), R0 = 11 [10]      

  • Haiti

 N = 3.2–14.6 M (1950–2100), R0 = 9.5 [33]      

  • Indonesia (Madura Island)

 N = 74–254 M (1950–2100), R0 = 9 [33]      

  • Lebanon

       N = 7 M (2015) [159]

  • Mexico (Campo Grande, Capoluca, Tuxpanguillo)

       R0 = V [170]

  • The Netherlands

 N = 15.2 M (1996), R0 = 5 [10]
N = 10–17 M (1950–2100), R0 = 4 [33]
N = 10–16 M (1950–2100), R0 = 5 [47]		      

  • Republic of the Congo

   N = 2.8 M, R0 = 1.5–1.85 [98]    
Theoretical or hypothetical populations N = 100 M, R0 = 4–13 by WBIL [10]
N = 10 or 100 M, R0 = 6–13 [14]
N = 0.1 M, R0 = 13 [24]
N = 0.1–1 M, R0 = 8–16 [27]
N = 1 M, R0 = 10 [34, 69]
N = 1 M, R0 = 3.6–11.7 [38, 39]
N = 0.0035–0.01 M, R0 = 15,20,25 [70]		 N = 1 M, R0 = 3,10 [97]   R0 = V [147, 148, 151, 152, 156]
N = 100%, R0 = 2.8 [149]
N = 100%, R0 = 4–20 [154]
N = 100%, R0 = 14 [160, 171]
N = 100% (DEB), 0.001–0.1 M (IB), R0 = V [155]
N = 100 M, R0 = 6 [150]
N = 100 M, R0 = V [153]
N = 0.2 M, R0 = 8–16 [161]
N = 1 M, R0 = V [165]
N = 0.0035–0.01 M, R0 = 15,20,25 [167–169]

* See source for list of included countries.

Abbreviations: cVDPV(1,2,3), circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus(serotype 1, 2, or 3); DEB, differential-equation based; IB, individual-based; GPEI, Global Polio Eradication Initiative; IC, Imperial College; IDM, Institute for Disease Modeling; IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; KRI, Kid Risk, Inc.; LI, low-income countries; LMI, lower middle-income countries; M, million; N, population; R0 basic reproduction number; UMI, upper middle-income countries; V = varied (used for R0 values, see paper); WBIL, World Bank Income Level; WPV(1,2,3), wild poliovirus(serotype 1, 2, or 3).