Table 3.
Associations with Coronavirus Disease 2019 Death Among All Public-sector Patients ≥20 Years Old With a Public-sector Health Visit in the Previous 3 Years
| Adjusted for location only | Adjusted for age and sex | Adjusted for all variables listed | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | 95% CI | P value | Adjusted HR | 95% CI | P value | Adjusted HR | 95% CI | P value | |
| Sex | |||||||||
| Female | Ref | … | Ref | … | Ref | … | |||
| Male | 1.21 | 1.03–1.41 | .02 | 1.26 | 1.07–1.47 | .005 | 1.45 | 1.23–1.70 | <.001 |
| Age | |||||||||
| 20–39 years | Ref | … | Ref | … | Ref | … | |||
| 40–49 years | 4.46 | 3.05–6.52 | <.001 | 4.42 | 3.02–6.46 | <.001 | 2.83 | 1.92–4.15 | <.001 |
| 50–59 years | 16.23 | 11.70–22.52 | <.001 | 16.13 | 11.62–22.39 | <.001 | 7.78 | 5.51–10.98 | <.001 |
| 60–69 years | 28.82 | 20.83–39.87 | <.001 | 28.81 | 20.82–39.86 | <.001 | 11.54 | 8.11–16.42 | <.001 |
| ≥70 years | 41.37 | 29.87–57.29 | <.001 | 41.85 | 30.21–57.96 | <.001 | 16.79 | 11.69–24.11 | <.001 |
| Diabetes | |||||||||
| None | Ref | … | Ref | … | Ref | … | |||
| Diabetes HbA1c <7% | 16.59 | 12.47–22.09 | <.001 | 6.07 | 4.52–8.16 | <.001 | 5.37 | 3.96–7.27 | <.001 |
| Diabetes HbA1c 7–8.9% | 25.32 | 19.98–32.10 | <.001 | 9.26 | 7.23–11.85 | <.001 | 8.53 | 6.60–11.02 | <.001 |
| Diabetes HbA1c ≥9% | 29.57 | 24.23–36.10 | <.001 | 12.90 | 10.47–15.88 | <.001 | 12.07 | 9.70–15.02 | <.001 |
| Diabetes, no HbA1c measurement | 7.29 | 5.52–9.62 | <.001 | 3.02 | 2.27–4.02 | <.001 | 2.91 | 2.18–3.89 | <.001 |
| Other noncommunicable diseases | |||||||||
| Hypertension | 6.72 | 5.73–7.88 | <.001 | 2.20 | 1.85–2.62 | <.001 | 1.31 | 1.09–1.57 | .004 |
| Chronic kidney disease | 11.43 | 9.30–14.05 | <.001 | 3.21 | 2.57–4.01 | <.001 | 1.86 | 1.49–2.33 | <.001 |
| Chronic pulmonary disease / asthma | 2.49 | 1.98–3.13 | <.001 | 1.08 | .85–1.36 | .538 | .93 | .73–1.17 | .514 |
| Tuberculosis | |||||||||
| Never tuberculosis | Ref | … | Ref | … | Ref | … | |||
| Previous tuberculosis | 1.79 | 1.42–2.24 | <.001 | 1.81 | 1.44–2.28 | <.001 | 1.51 | 1.18–1.93 | .001 |
| Current tuberculosis | 2.79 | 1.88–4.13 | <.001 | 3.29 | 2.21–4.88 | <.001 | 2.70 | 1.81–4.04 | <.001 |
| HIV | |||||||||
| Negative | Ref | … | Ref | … | Ref | … | |||
| Positive | 1.07 | .88–1.32 | .494 | 1.97 | 1.59–2.45 | <.001 | 2.14 | 1.70–2.70 | <.001 |
| VL <1000 copies/ml (last 15 mo) and ART script (last 6 mo)a | … | … | … | … | 2.61 | 1.98–3.43 | <.001 | ||
| VL <1000 copies/ml (2yr to 15 mo prior), or ART script (last 6 mo) and VL <1000 copies/ml >2yr prior | … | … | … | … | 1.76 | .96–3.24 | .067 | ||
| VL ≥1000 copies/ml (last 15 mo) or CD4 count <200 cells/µl (last 18 mo) | … | … | … | … | 3.35 | 1.83–6.12 | <.001 | ||
| No VL (last 15 mo); CD4 count ≥200 cells/µl or unknown (last 18 mo) | … | … | … | … | 1.33 | .85–2.07 | .217 | ||
Data are from univariate and multivariate HRs and 95% CIs from 1 March to 9 June 2020, for patients (n = 3 460 932), using Cox proportional hazards models.
Abbreviations: ART, antiretroviral therapy; CI, confidence interval; HbA1c, glycosylated haemoglobin; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; HR, hazard ratio; VL, viral load.
aReference category for HR is HIV negative, only included in an adjusted analysis, adjusted for all other variables listed in this table in a model that included the listed categories of HIV VL, ART, and immunosuppression instead of the binary variable of testing HIV positive vs negative; the effect of the other variables on mortality was similar to those presented here.