Table 2. PM10 2019 model performance statistics.
The Prophet model forecasted 2019 values on an hourly basis, which was compared to actual values over a 5 day, 15 day, 1 month, and 1 year period. Units for MSE, RMSE, and MAE are µg/m3. The MAE was on average 19.6 µg/m3 away from the actual value after 5 days and as the time increased away from the known values, the error increased.
Time | MSE | RMSE | MAE | Coverage |
---|---|---|---|---|
5 Days | 8.60 × 102 | 2.93 × 101 | 1.96 × 101 | 79.0% |
15 Days | 8.78 × 102 | 2.96 × 101 | 2.01 × 101 | 77.1% |
1 Month | 8.98 × 102 | 3.00 × 101 | 2.03 × 101 | 76.7% |
6 Months | 1.27 × 103 | 3.55 × 101 | 2.42 × 101 | 77.6% |
1 Year | 1.67 × 103 | 4.04 × 101 | 2.72 × 101 | 74.0% |