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. 2020 Sep 15;8:e9961. doi: 10.7717/peerj.9961

Table 3. O3 2019 model performance statistics.

The Prophet model forecasted 2019 values on an hourly basis, which was compared to actual values over a 5 day, 15 day, 1 month, and 1 year period. Units for MSE, RMSE, and MAE are ppm. The MAE was on average 0.0113 ppm away from the actual value after 5 days and as the time increased away from the known values, the error increased; the total MAE increase from 5 to 365 days was 0.0021 ppm.

Time MSE RMSE MAE Coverage
5 Days 2.34 × 10−4 1.53 × 10−2 1.13 × 10−2 80.9%
15 Days 2.47 × 10−4 1.57 × 10−2 1.15 × 10−2 80.3%
1 Month 2.58 × 10−4 1.60 × 10−2 1.17 × 10−2 79.9%
6 Months 2.99 × 10−4 1.73 × 10−2 1.30 × 10−2 78.5%
1 Year 3.13 × 10−4 1.77 × 10−2 1.34 × 10−2 76.5%