Table 3. O3 2019 model performance statistics.
The Prophet model forecasted 2019 values on an hourly basis, which was compared to actual values over a 5 day, 15 day, 1 month, and 1 year period. Units for MSE, RMSE, and MAE are ppm. The MAE was on average 0.0113 ppm away from the actual value after 5 days and as the time increased away from the known values, the error increased; the total MAE increase from 5 to 365 days was 0.0021 ppm.
| Time | MSE | RMSE | MAE | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Days | 2.34 × 10−4 | 1.53 × 10−2 | 1.13 × 10−2 | 80.9% |
| 15 Days | 2.47 × 10−4 | 1.57 × 10−2 | 1.15 × 10−2 | 80.3% |
| 1 Month | 2.58 × 10−4 | 1.60 × 10−2 | 1.17 × 10−2 | 79.9% |
| 6 Months | 2.99 × 10−4 | 1.73 × 10−2 | 1.30 × 10−2 | 78.5% |
| 1 Year | 3.13 × 10−4 | 1.77 × 10−2 | 1.34 × 10−2 | 76.5% |