Table 4.
Results of the Bayesian linear regression analyses (with the posterior, prior, and likelihood distributions). Predictors were the logarithmic k or λ (for mixed gambles) values at baseline as indicators of impulsive decision-making. Outcomes were the differences between the addictive disorder severity of substance use disorder (SUD) or non-substance-related addictive disorder (ND) (number of fulfilled diagnostic criteria and quantity-frequency-index (QFI)) at 1-year follow-up minus baseline
| Mean/beta of association | 95% credibility/confidence interval | Probability (%) that associations are hypothesized direction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delay discounting log (k) | Association > 0 | |||
| SUD criteria | Posterior | 0.12 | 0.03–0.20 | 99 |
| Prior | 0.25 | 0.00–0.50 | ||
| Likelihood | 0.10 | 0.01–0.20 | ||
| ND criteria | Posterior | 0.03 | − 0.06–0.11 | 72 |
| Prior | 0.25 | 0.00–0.50 | ||
| Likelihood | 0.00 | − 0.10–0.09 | ||
| QFI SUD-related | Posterior | 0.04 | − 0.05–0.15 | 83 |
| Prior | 0.25 | 0.00–0.50 | ||
| Likelihood | 0.11 | 0.00–0.22 | ||
| QFI ND-related | Posterior | 0.07 | − 0.03–0.14 | 93 |
| Prior | 0.25 | 0.00–0.50 | ||
| Likelihood | 0.05 | − 0.04–0.15 | ||
| Probability discounting for gains log (k) | Association < 0 | |||
| SUD criteria | Posterior | − 0.04 | − 0.13–0.04 | 84 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | − 0.02 | − 0.11–0.08 | ||
| ND criteria | Posterior | − 0.06 | − 0.14–0.03 | 90 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | − 0.03 | − 0.12–0.06 | ||
| QFI SUD-related | Posterior | 0.02 | − 0.09–0.12 | 40 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | 0.00 | − 0.10–0.10 | ||
| QFI ND-related | Posterior | 0.03 | − 0.08–0.13 | 29 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | 0.03 | − 0.06–0.12 | ||
| Probability discounting for losses log (k) | Association < 0 | |||
| SUD criteria | Posterior | 0.02 | − 0.07–0.10 | 34 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | 0.05 | − 0.04–0.14 | ||
| ND criteria | Posterior | − 0.09 | − 0.17 to − 0.01 | 98 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | − 0.06 | −0.16–0.03 | ||
| QFI SUD-related | Posterior | 0.03 | − 0.07–0.14 | 26 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | 0.02 | − 0.08–0.13 | ||
| QFI ND-related | Posterior | 0.03 | − 0.07–0.13 | 31 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | 0.02 | − 0.08–0.11 | ||
| Loss aversion log (λ) | Association < 0 | |||
| SUD criteria | Posterior | − 0.14 | − 0.23 to − 0.06 | 99 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | − 0.13 | − 0.23 to − 0.03 | ||
| ND criteria | Posterior | − 0.10 | − 0.18 to − 0.01 | 98 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | − 0.07 | − 0.17–0.03 | ||
| QFI SUD-related | Posterior | − 0.02 | − 0.13–0.09 | 62 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | − 0.04 | − 0.16–0.07 | ||
| QFI ND-related | Posterior | − 0.02 | − 0.10–0.09 | 57 |
| Prior | − 0.25 | − 0.50–0.00 | ||
| Likelihood | − 0.02 | − 0.11–0.08 |
Baseline demographic characteristics (age, gender, IQ, income, and school graduation) and participants’ baseline values in addictive disorder severity were included as control variables in all analyses