Table 1.
Impact of outbreak-control holidays on the numbers of days to reach different levels of COVID-19 epidemic spread.
| Scenarios | Effect of outbreak-control holidays on the number of days to reacha |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed infections |
All infectionsb |
||||
| 10 000 cases | 50 000 cases | 100 000 cases | 50 000 cases | 100 000 cases | |
| Duration | |||||
| No outbreak-control holiday (reference) | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
| Base case outbreak-control holidayc | 1.48 (1.18, 1.80) | 6.19 (5.00, 7.45) | 7.54 (6.22, 9.06) | 5.09 (3.07, 6.73) | 6.92 (5.65, 8.3) |
| 7-day outbreak-control holiday | 1.48 (1.18, 1.80) | 4.09 (3.44, 4.73) | 4.36 (3.65, 5.04) | 4.00 (3.04, 4.69) | 4.34 (3.66, 5.02) |
| 10-day outbreak-control holiday | 1.48 (1.18, 1.80) | 5.53 (4.58, 6.54) | 6.10 (5.09, 7.11) | 5.08 (3.07, 6.47) | 6.08 (5.06, 7.10) |
| 21-day outbreak-control holiday | 1.48 (1.18, 1.80) | 6.89 (5.42, 8.96) | 9.95 (7.66, 13.26) | 5.11 (3.07, 7.01) | 8.21 (5.85, 11.59) |
| Starting time | |||||
| Base case outbreak-control holiday (reference) | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
| Base case outbreak-control holiday, 5 d earlier | 5.14 (3.87, 6.48) | 2.46 (1.80, 3.05) | 1.47 (1.02, 1.85) | 3.26 (2.35, 5.20) | 1.96 (1.28, 2.63) |
| Base case outbreak-control holiday, 5 d later | −1.48 (−1.80, −1.18) | −5.19 (−6.53, −3.87) | −4.90 (−6.71, −3.58) | −5.09 (−6.73, −3.07) | −5.99 (−8.04, −4.22) |
| Transmission rate reduction | |||||
| Base case outbreak-control holiday (reference) | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
| Base case outbreak-control holiday, +50% transmission rate reduction | 1.69 (0.89, 2.21) | 5.57 (3.81, 7.28) | 4.98 (3.45, 6.80) | 6.33 (5.01, 7.72) | 5.46 (3.89, 7.21) |
| Base case outbreak-control holiday, +90% transmission rate reduction | 6.00 (1.96, 8.54) | 9.12 (6.65, 11.88) | 8.19 (5.96, 11.02) | 10.14 (8.06, 12.53) | 8.76 (6.63, 11.47) |
a
The values in the cells represent the differences in days to reach the specified epidemic levels between a policy scenario and the comparator.
b
All infections include confirmed/diagnosed, undiagnosed, and latent infections.