Table 6.

Estimated CVD mortality cases avoided based on the change in blood Pb levels from 1999 to 2014 using Menke et al. (2006) inputs in the HIM.

Age group	Sex	Avoided CVD deaths in 2014
		Lower estimatea	Central estimate	Higher estimatea
40–49	Male	1,948	4,915	8,183
	Female	721	1,787	2,921
50–59	Male	4,825	12,037	19,815
	Female	1,801	4,434	7,205
60–69	Male	8,125	20,360	33,664
	Female	2,662	6,494	10,459
70–80	Male	7,666	18,821	30,498
	Female	5,060	12,342	19,872
Total (40–80 y)	Male	22,564	56,133	92,159
	Female	10,244	25,056	40,456
	Both	32,808	81,189	132,616

Note: CVD, cardiovascular disease; HIM, health impact model; Pb, lead.

^aLow and high estimates based on the lower and upper bound effect estimates from the Menke et al. (2006) 95% confidence interval.