Table 1. Estimated cumulative COVID-19 cases, healthcare requirements, and deaths, Austin–Round Rock, metropolitan statistical area, Texas, USA, March 1–August 17, 2020*.
| Outcome | No measures | School closure | School closure and 50% social distancing | School closure and 75% social distancing | School closure and 90% social distancing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 1,139,633 (1,092,754–1,173,408) | 1,098,755 (1,016,794–1,143,147) | 596,304 (215,897–854,094) | 34,232 (2,871–244,959) | 2,013 (642–11,358) |
| Hospitalizations | 79,120 (75,373–82,608) | 76,698 (70,091–80,602) | 36,534 (11,474–57,912) | 1,889 (159–13,512) | 125 (32–660) |
| ICU | 13,312 (12,673–13,890) | 12,897 (11,786–13,540) | 6141 (1,929–9,736) | 318 (27–2,273) | 21 (5–111) |
| Ventilators | 6,274 (5,973–6,545) | 6,077 (5,554–6,377) | 2,893 (909–4,587) | 150 (13–1,071) | 10 (3–53) |
| Deaths | 9,646 (9,031–10,206) | 9,324 (8,481–9,954) | 3,698 (995–6,751) | 176 (13–1,315) | 13 (1–70) |
*Values are medians (95% prediction intervals) across 100 stochastic simulations based on parameters in Table 1. COVID-19, coronavirus disease; ICU, intensive care unit.