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. 2020 Jun 16;20(10):1151–1160. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30457-6

Table 3.

Mean reduction in Reff under different control measures

Self-Isolation Contact tracing Non-HH contacts who are potentially traceable (%) Cases who have R>1 (%) Reff Mean reduction in Reff
No control No No NA 50% 2·6 0%
Self-isolation within home Yes No NA 40% 1·8 29%
Self-isolation outside home Yes NA NA 37% 1·7 35%
Self-isolation plus HHQ Yes HH NA 35% 1·6 37%
Self-isolation plus HHQ plus work or school contact tracing Yes HH and work or school 100% 27% 1·2 53%
Self-isolation plus HHQ plus manual contact tracing of acquaintances Yes All 90% school, 79% work, and 52% other 26% 1·1 57%
Self-isolation plus HHQ plus manual contact tracing of all contacts Yes All 100% 21% 0·94 64%
Self-isolation plus HHQ plus app-based tracing Yes All 53% 30% 1·4 47%
Self-isolation plus HHQ plus manual contact tracing of acquaintances plus app-based tracing Yes All 90% school, 79% work, and 52% other with manual tracing; 53% with app tracing 23% 1 61%
Self-isolation plus HHQ plus manual contact tracing of acquaintances plus limit to four daily contacts with other individuals Yes All 90% school, 79% work, and 52% other 21% 0·93 64%
Self-isolation plus HHQ plus manual contact tracing of acquaintances plus app-based tracing plus limit to four daily contacts with other individuals Yes All 90% school, 79% work, and 52% other with manual tracing; 53% with app tracing 20% 0·87 66%
Mass testing of 5% of population per week No NA NA 49% 2·5 2%

Results from 20 000 simulated setting-specific secondary transmissions, assuming a secondary attack rate of 20% among household contacts and 6% among other contacts. Results under the assumption of some workplace restrictions remaining in place are shown in table 4. Estimates are shown to two significant figures. HH=household. HHQ=household quarantine. NA=not applicable. Reff=effective reproduction number.