Table 3:
Summary of model outputs for the 4 scenarios studied*
| Variable | Minimal control | Maintained physical distancing | Enhanced case detection and contact tracing | Combined interventions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total attack rate, % (95% CrI) | 56.1 (0.05–57.1) | 41.6 (0.04–43.4) | 0.36 (0.03–23.5) | 0.25 (0.03–1.7) |
| Clinical attack rate, % (95% CrI) | 34.5 (0.03–35.1) | 25.4 (0.03–26.6) | 0.23 (0.02–14.3) | 0.16 (0.02–1.0) |
| Asymptomatic attack rate, % (95% CrI) | 21.6 (0.01–22.1) | 16.2 (0.01–16.9) | 0.13 (0.01–9.2) | 0.09 (0.01–0.7) |
| Proportion of asymptomatic cases of total cases, % (95% CrI) | 38.5 (26.7–42.5) | 38.8 (28.6–40.2) | 38.9 (24.1–40.5) | 36.9 (28.6–42.8) |
| Clinical cases that are mild (not admitted to hospital), % (95% CrI) | 89.1 (4.1–21.2) | 89.5 (84.0–94.9) | 89.7 (80.0–93.0) | 90.0 (60.9–93.6) |
| Clinical cases that are admitted to hospital (includes ICU), % (95% CrI) | 10.9 (4.1–21.2) | 10.5 (5.1–16.0) | 10.3 (7.0–20.0) | 10.0 (6.5–39.1) |
| Clinical cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI) | 2.8 (0.0–7.9) | 2.7 (0.0–5.9) | 2.6 (0.0–5.0) | 2.7 (0.0–6.2) |
| Hospital-admitted cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI) | 25.4 (0.0–50.0) | 25.4 (0.0–50.0) | 25.4 (0.0–40.0) | 24.1 (0.0–57.1) |
| Mortality rate of clinical cases, % (95% CrI) | 3.2 (0.0–3.5) | 2.9 (0.0–4.8) | 1.7 (0.0–4.0) | 1.4 (0.0–5.3) |
| Total cases (clinical and asymptomatic) per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 56 148 (45–57 068) | 41 579 (44–43 455) | 358 (29–23 408) | 247 (28–1679) |
| Total clinical cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 34 463 (31–35 087) | 25 413 (30–26 626) | 227 (22–14 301) | 157 (20–991) |
| Total asymptomatic cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 21 615 (12–22 101) | 16 152 (14–16 881) | 129 (7–9249) | 94 (8–688) |
| Total hospital-admitted cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 3747 (2–3903) | 2661 (3–2824) | 25 (2–1464) | 16 (4–105) |
| Total cases admitted into the ICU per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 950 (0–1031) | 665 (0–748) | 7 (0–387) | 4 (0–28) |
| Total deaths per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 1113 (0–1208) | 739 (0–830) | 4 (0–296) | 2 (0–13) |
| Infections acquired at school, % (95% CrI) | 9.1 (1.7–9.7) | 8.9 (0.0–9.4) | 9.1 (0.0–13.3) | 4.8 (0.0–10.8) |
| infections acquired at work, % (95% CrI) | 14.2 (9.1–20.5) | 13.7 (5.3–19.5) | 13.1 (5.8–25.8) | 13.3 (5.8–19.4) |
| Infections acquired in mixed-age venues, % (95% CrI) | 25.4 (14.3–28.2) | 24.0 (12.3–27.2) | 23.2 (11.1–27.8) | 22.4 (13.6–30.3) |
| Infections acquired in the household, % (95% CrI) | 51.2 (50.8–68.2) | 53.3 (52.9–64.9) | 56.2 (53.1–69.2) | 58.4 (51.6–69.7) |
| No. of infections acquired at school per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 5134 (1–5336) | 3759 (0–3920) | 18 (0–2365) | 11 (0–159) |
| No. of infections acquired at work per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 7947 (4–8239) | 5655 (2–6000) | 43 (2–3107) | 33 (3–217) |
| No. of infections acquired in mixed-age venue per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 14 225 (6–14 694) | 9941 (6–10 503) | 83 (2–5511) | 56 (3–371) |
| No. of infections acquired at home per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 28 659 (24–29 137) | 22 176 (23–23 080) | 210 (16–12 591) | 142 (15–942) |
Note: CrI = credible interval, ICU = intensive care unit.
*
Median values from 50 realizations are presented in the table with 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile values representing the 95% CrI. Wide range in the 95% CrI indicates dichotomous outcomes across the model runs (i.e., epidemic v. epidemic elimination). The median values indicate the most likely outcome out of 50 realizations.