Table 5:
Summary of model outputs for the 4 scenarios studied with extended community (workplace and mixed-age venue) closures*
| Variable | Minimal control | Maintained physical distancing | Enhanced case detection and contact tracing | Combined interventions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total attack rate, % (95% CrI) | 0.4 (0.1–57.0) | 0.3 (0.04–43.3) | 0.2 (0.03–0.9) | 0.2 (0.07–0.9) |
| Clinical attack rate, % (95% CrI) | 0.3 (0.06–34.9) | 0.2 (0.03–26.5) | 0.1 (0.02–0.6) | 0.2 (0.05–0.5) |
| Asymptomatic attack rate, % (95% CrI) | 0.2 (0.03–22.2) | 0.1 (0.01–16.8) | 0.1 (0.01–0.3) | 0.1 (0.02–0.3) |
| Proportion of asymptomatic cases of total cases, % (95% CrI) | 38.5 (33.8–42.6) | 38.8 (28.0–43.6) | 37.9 (25.3–44.7) | 37.5 (27.4–44.3) |
| Clinical cases that are mild (not admitted to hospital), % (95% CrI) | 89.0 (85.5–93.1) | 89.6 (83.3–93.8) | 89.5 (82.2–93.2) | 89.6 (79.7–93.1) |
| Clinical cases admitted to hospital (includes ICU), % (95% CrI) | 11.0 (6.9–14.5) | 10.4 (6.2–16.7) | 10.5 (6.8–17.8) | 10.4 (6.9–20.3) |
| Clinical cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI) | 2.8 (0.7–5.2) | 2.6 (0.0–42.9) | 2.7 (0.0–7.4) | 2.8 (0.4–6.1) |
| Hospital-admitted cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI) | 25.6 (5.3–57.1) | 24.7 (0.0–42.9) | 25.9 (0.0–55.6) | 23.8 (4.0–46.7) |
| Mortality rate of clinical cases, % (95% CrI) | 3.2 (0.0–4.7) | 1.7 (0.0–4.8) | 1.4 (0.0–4.3) | 1.5 (0.0–5.1) |
| Total cases (clinical and asymptomatic) per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 436 (96–56 988) | 290 (42–43 333) | 237 (30–886) | 226 (70–869) |
| Total clinical cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 263 (58–34 923) | 169 (29–26 531) | 143 (22–549) | 145 (46–543) |
| Total asymptomatic cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 166 (34–22 192) | 119 (13–16 802) | 89 (7–337) | 91 (22–326) |
| Total hospital-admitted cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 27 (4–3922) | 18 (5–2758) | 16 (2–54) | 15 (5–60) |
| Total cases admitted into the ICU per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 11 (1–1019) | 5 (0–705) | 5 (0–15) | 4 (1–16) |
| Total deaths per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 5 (0–1218) | 3 (0–784) | 2 (0–12) | 2 (0–9) |
| Infections acquired at school, % (95% CrI) | 9.0 (1.0–11.6) | 4.2 (0.0–9.4) | 4.0 (0.0–8.2) | 4.0 (0.0–8.7) |
| infections acquired at work, % (95% CrI) | 14.2 (3.8–20.5) | 13.6 (8.3–18.4) | 12.4 (5.3–18.9) | 12.5 (7.1–23.0) |
| Infections acquired in mixed-age venues, % (95% CrI) | 25.3 (13.1–33.9) | 22.8 (16.3–28.4) | 22.5 (12.2–29.1) | 22.5 (16.2–30.5) |
| Infections acquired in the household, % (95% CrI) | 54.7 (50.9–62.7) | 59.6 (53.0–67.1) | 60.2 (56.7–75.0) | 59.8 (52.2–64.1) |
| No. of infections acquired at school per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 29 (1–5307) | 11 (0–3900) | 9 (0–53) | 10 (0–60) |
| No. of infections acquired at work per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 62 (5–8194) | 41.5 (5–5948) | 30 (1–105) | 31 (6–125) |
| No. of infections acquired in mixed-age venue per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 109 (17–14 513) | 60 (8–10 461) | 52 (4–201) | 47 (14–199) |
| No. of infections acquired at home per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 243 (52–29 116) | 173 (22–22 991) | 138 (15–541) | 139 (35–508) |
Note: CrI = credible interval, ICU = intensive care unit.
*
Median values from 50 realizations are presented in the table with 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile values representing the 95% CrI. Wide range in the 95% CrI indicates dichotomous outcomes in model runs (i.e., epidemic v. epidemic elimination). The median values indicate the most likely outcome out of 50 realizations.