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. 2020 Sep 24;15(9):e0239647. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239647

Fig 2. Reduction of NPIs by >50% may result increased transmission and significant mortality.

Fig 2

(A-F). Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in the presence of NPIs through September 1, 2020. Periods of NPIs signified as in (A) top: pink, increased NPIs; green, relaxed NPIs. Orange circles, NYS SARS-CoV-2 data. Lines, simulated projection of reduced NPIs starting June 1, 2020 (yellow, 50% reduction; red, 30% reduction; blue, 15% reduction). A. Active confirmed infections. B. Active hospitalizations. C. Cumulative deaths. D. Heatmap displaying the effect of NPI magnitude and date of reduction on the number of cumulative deaths. E. R(t). F. Categorical heatmap displaying the effect of NPI magnitude and date of reduction on R(t) > 1 (yellow, R(t) > 1; blue R(t) < 1). (G-H). Simulation of extreme reduction of NPIs on June 1, 2020 (yellow, 75%; blue, 25%). G. Active hospitalizations. H. Cumulative deaths. See also, S7 and S8 Figs, S4 Table.