Fig. 3.

In this figure we plot the cumulative number of cases of the left hand side and the daily number of cases on the right hand side. In (a) and (b) we use the data until February 5. In (c) and (d) we use the data until February 12. In (e) and (f) we use the data until March 11. The best is obtained for $t_1$ = January $20,t_2$ = January $30,1/\nu =5$ days, $1/\eta =6$ days, $f=0.6,\mu =0.1$ and $N$ = January 27. The smallest mean absolute deviation ${\mathrm{MAD}}_{\min }$ is 475.