Fig. 4.

In this figure we plot the cumulative number of cases of the left hand side and the daily number of cases on the right hand side. In (a) and (b) we use the data until March 4. In (c) and (d) we use the data until March 8. (e) and (f) we use the data until March 24. The best is obtained for $t_1$ = February $19,t_2$ = February $24,1/\nu =4$ days, $1/\eta =16$ days, $f=0.9,\mu =0.26$ and $N$ = February 27. The smallest mean absolute deviation ${\mathrm{MAD}}_{\min }$ is 144.