Fig. 6.

In this figure we plot the cumulative number of cases of the left hand side and the daily number of cases on the right hand side. In (a) and (b) we use the data until March 17. In (c) and (d) we use the data until April 1. (e) and (f) we use the data until June 10. The best is obtained for $t_1$ = March $1,t_2$ = March $20,1/\nu =6$ days, $1/\eta =15$ days, $f=0.4,\mu =0.05$ and $N$ = March 15. The smallest mean absolute deviation ${\mathrm{MAD}}_{\min }$ is 2347.