Fig. 7.

In this figure we plot the cumulative number of cases of the left hand side and the daily number of cases on the right hand side. In (a) and (b) we use the data until March 22. In (c) and (d) we use the data until April 11. (e) and (f) we use the data until June 10. The best is obtained for $t_1$ = February $24,t_2$ = March $11,1/\nu =15$ days, $1/\eta =14$ days, $f=0.7,\mu =0.1$ and $N$ = March 13. The smallest mean absolute deviation ${\mathrm{MAD}}_{\min }$ is 1368.