Fig. 8.

In this figure we plot the cumulative number of cases of the left hand side and the daily number of cases on the right hand side. In (a) and (b) we use the data until April 6. In (c) and (d) we use the data until April 26. (e) and (f) we use the data until June 25. The best is obtained for $t_1$ = March $4,t_2$ = March $26,1/\nu =30$ days, $1/\eta =31$ days, $f=0.1,\mu =0.08$ and $N$ = March 22. The smallest mean absolute deviation ${\mathrm{MAD}}_{\min }$ is 1248.