FIG. 7.

Alternative calculation of the distribution of COVID-19 case numbers in countries worldwide and counties in the US. Same as Fig. 1, but for the alternative histogram algorithm, using a histogram of log-transformed case numbers (see Appendix A). Left column: Estimated probability $P_x(n)$ (blue lines and circles) for a country to have a certain number $n$ of (a) confirmed cases ($x=C$) and (b) confirmed deaths ($x=D$) on March 22, 2020. Right column: The same for the 2160 US counties that have been invaded by the coronavirus on March 31, 2020, for (c) confirmed cases and (d) confirmed deaths. Insets: Cumulative fraction $C(n)=\sum _{m=n+1}^{N}P(m)$ of countries, or counties, with case number $m>n$.