TABLE 3.

Estimated cumulative excess deaths and relative increase as compared to 2019, over the period 1 March to 30 April 2020, stratified by health protection agency (HPA), age or sex

Disease	HPA Bergamo		HPA Brescia
	Estimated excess number of deaths (95% CS)	Estimated increase (n-fold) in the number of deaths (95% CS)	Estimated excess number of deaths (95% CS)	Estimated increase (n-fold) in the number of deaths (95% CS)
Total	5719 (5556–5892)	4.07 (3.98–4.17)	3820 (3676–3967)	2.91 (2.84–2.99)
Sex
Female	2422 (2314–2536)	3.48 (3.37–3.60)	1787 (1686–1894)	2.69 (2.59–2.79)
Male	3296 (3176–3426)	4.72 (4.59–4.87)	2033 (1930–2140)	3.16 (3.05–3.28)
Age-class
<60	168 (137–206)	2.18 (1.96–2.44)	108 (81–139)	1.87 (1.66–2.13)
60–69	538 (489–593)	4.30 (3.99–4.63)	334 (294–380)	3.10 (2.85–3.39)
70–79	1525 (1442–1613)	5.05 (4.83–5.28)	982 (913–1058)	3.46 (3.29–3.65)
80–89	2377 (2271–2487)	4.34 (4.19–4.50)	1530 (1439–1625)	2.95 (2.83–3.07)
90+	1108 (1034–1187)	3.37 (3.21–3.54)	866 (796–941)	2.63 (2.50–2.77)

The sum of the estimated number of deaths within sex or age categories might not equal the total estimated excess, since stratified estimates are derived from separate models.