Table 3.

AIC, chi‐square test difference, and adjustment quality of the free, entirely constrained and sequentially constrained paths in tested model. Egg‐laying date, larch budburst date, and snow melt‐out date are expressed in DOY (day of the year). Air temperature is expressed in degrees (°C)

	AIC	Chi‐square test difference between the free and constrained model	Goodness of Fit of the model (p‐value Chi‐square)
Free model
Egg‐laying date
~ Larch budburst
~ Snow melt‐out
Snow melt‐out	385.5		.17
~ Air temperature
Larch budburst
~ Air temperature
Entire constrained model	412.3	<0.001	0
Sequentially constrained paths
Egg‐laying date
~ Larch budburst	390.6	0.008	.02
Egg‐laying date
~ Snow melt‐out	386.2	0.10	.10
Snow melt‐out
~ Air temperature	393.8	0.001	.005
Larch budburst
~ Air temperature	383.5	0.95	.27