Figure 4.

Model output of the age-dependent seroprevalence profiles of 15 simulated cattle herds at three subsequent time points after a single introduction of BoHV-1 infection (line colours). Solid lines represent individual herds, while dashed lines indicate the maximum/minimum envelopes per time point. A Output scenario A—no reactivation: the 15 seroprevalence profiles are reported at 0.5 years (red); at a random time point between 2 and 5 years (blue); and at 12 years (green) after the initial seeding of infection. B Output scenario B—reactivation of a latent animal was forced 4.5 years after the initial seeding of infection, leading to an additional round of primary infection: the 15 seroprevalence profiles are reported at 0.5 years (red); at 5 years (blue); and at a random time point between 9 and 12 years (green) after the initial seeding of infection. Note: In (b) Blue lines, i.e. 5 years post introduction, equal 0.5 years after reactivation occurred; and green equals time points selected at random between 4.5 and 7.5 years after the reactivation event.