Figure 23.

PDFs of the warming by late this century, from our Baseline PDF of S. These warming PDFs are obtained by converting S to warming using the best linear fit and then convolving the induced PDF with Gaussian uncertainty, as shown by the shading in Figure 1b. Results from RCP6.0 employ data from Forster et al. (2013). Note that the warming is calculated relative to 1985–2005; approximate warming relative to preindustrial is shown at the top, based on 0.6‐K warming having occurred by 1985–2005. Warming was estimated using the difference of 20‐year means centered on the years 1995 or 2089.