Table 5.
Comparison of Our Shist Estimates With Previous Studies That Are Representative of the Literature Range of Sensitivity Estimates (for a Complete Collection See Knutti et al., 2017)
| Study | Periods | ΔF 2xCO2 (W m−2) | ΔF (W m−2) | ΔN (W m−2) | ΔT (K) | S (K) published | S hist (K) Equation 19 |
S hist (K) Equation 21 with uniform S hist prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This study (Cowtan and Way, SAT, Bellouin et al. (2020) aerosol ERF) BASELINE | 1861–1880 2006–2018 | 4.0 (3.51,4.49) | 1.83 (−0.03,2.71) | 0.6 (0.3,0.9) | 1.03 (0.89,1.17) | — | 3.11 (1.86,14.41) | 4.26 (2.04,16.13) |
| This study (Cowtan and Way, blended) | 1861–1880 2006–2018 | BASELINE | BASELINE | BASELINE | 0.96 (0.82,1.1) | 2.90 (1.73,13.52) | 4.02 (1.90,16.01) | |
| This study BASELINE SAT, modified start dates | 1850–1900 2006–2018 | BASELINE | 2.09 (0.25,2.96) | BASELINE | 1.02 (0.9,1.14) | 2.63 (1.66,10.97) | 3.52 (1.80,15.33) | |
| This study BASELINESAT, AR5 aerosol ERF | 1861–1880 2006–2018 | BASELINE | 2.27 (1.45,2.98) | BASELINE | BASELINE | 2.49 (1.66, 5.05) | 2.79 (1.76,7.48) | |
| Lewis and Curry (2018) | 1869–1882 to 2007–2016 | 3.8 (3.06,4.54) | 2.5 (1.68, 3.36) | 0.5 (0.25, 0.75) | 0.8 (0.65, 0.95) | 1.5 (1.05,2.45) | ||
| Skeie et al. (2014) | observations up to 2010 (from 1850 and 1945/1950 for OHC) | 1.5 (0.27–2.5) in 2010 | 1.4 (0.79–2.2) TCR | 1.8 (0.9, 3.2) | ||||
| Skeie et al. (2018) | observations extended up to 2014 | 2.3 (1.3, 3.4) | 1.4 (0.9, 2.0) TCR | 2.0 (1.2, 3.1) | ||||
| Johansson et al. (2015) | observations up to 2011 (from 1880, 1957 for OHC) | 3.71 | 2.29 (ERF from IPCC AR5 Table 8. SM5) | 0.37–11.1 (prior ECS range for CO2 doubling) | N/A (2.0, 3.2) 90% CI 2.50 mode |
Note. Medians and 5–95% ranges are shown. The temperature estimates include the effects of internal variability (section 4.1.1). When not given, these are inferred assuming Gaussian distributions. The row appearing in boldface contains the values used in the Baseline calculation.