Table 7.
Results of multivariable logistic regression analysis showing variables independently associated with complete miscarriage ≤ 10 days and ≤ 17 days in women with embryonic miscarriage managed expectantly when s-β-hCG or s-progesterone were included as variables
| Model with s-hCG | Model with s-progesterone | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC (95% CI) | Constant | Coefficient | Odds ratio (95% CI) | P valuea | AUC (95% CI) | Constant | Coefficient | Odds ratio (95% CI) | P valuea | ||
| Complete miscarriage ≤ 10 days (n = 49) | (n = 50) | ||||||||||
| 0.821 | 0.834 | ||||||||||
| (0.707–0.936) | 2.857 | (0.726–0.943) | − 0.032 | ||||||||
| Variables in model | |||||||||||
| s-β-hCG (OR for change in units of 1000 IU/L) | − 0.066 | 0.936 (0.866–1.011) | 0.035 | NA | NA | NA | |||||
| s-Progesterone (OR for change in nmol/L) | NA | NA | NA | − 0.038 | 0.963 (0.920–1.008) | 0.006 | |||||
| Mean sac diameter (OR for change in mm) | − 0.145 | 0.865 (0.775–0.966) | 0.004 | − 0.159 | 0.853 (0.761–0.957) | 0.002 | |||||
| CRL (OR for change in mm) | 0.254 | 1.289 (1.052–1.581) | 0.003 | 0.289 | 1.335 (1.074–1.659) | 0.001 | |||||
| Complete miscarriage ≤ 17 days (n = 49) | (n = 49) | ||||||||||
| 0.796 | 0.824 | ||||||||||
| (0.654–0.938) | 0.348 | (0.704–0.943) | 3.072 | ||||||||
| Variables in model | |||||||||||
| s-β-hCG (OR for change in units of 1000 IU/L) | − 0.061 | 0.941 (0.889–0.996) | 0.008 | NA | NA | NA | |||||
| s-Progesterone (OR for change in nmol/L) | NA | NA | NA | − 0.043 | 0.958 (0.918–1.000) | 0.001 | |||||
| Mean sac diameter (OR for change in mm) | NA | NA | NA | − 0.114 | 0.893 (0.797–1.000) | 0.036 | |||||
| CRL (OR for change in mm) | 0.152 | 1.165 (0.973–1.395) | 0.049 | 0.27 | 1.311 (1.037–1.656) | 0.006 | |||||
The probability of treatment success is calculated as [ez/(1 + ez) where e = 2.718 (base value of natural logarithm) and z is calculated as:
z = constant + (coefficient × s-beta-hCG in units of 1000 IU/L + coefficient × mean sac diameter in mm + coefficient × crown-rump length in mm)
or
z = constant + (coefficient × s-progesterone in nmol/L + coefficient × mean sac diameter in mm + coefficient × crown-rump length in mm)
s-β-hCG serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin, s-progesterone serum-progesterone, AUC area under receiver-operating characteristic curve, CI confidence interval, OR odds ratio, CRL crown-rump length, NA not applicable
aLikelihood ratio test