Table 2.
Discrimination and calibration statistics for predicted 5-year risk of ASCVD by PCE, PAR and FRS
| PCE | PAR | FRS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Women | |||
| C statistics (95%CI) | 0.738 (0.703, 0.773) | 0.731 (0.696, 0.766) | 0.761 (0.728, 0.794) |
| D statistics | 1.259 (1.253,1.265) | 1.260 (1.254,1.266) | 1.427 (1.421,1.433) |
| R2 statistics (%) | 27.46 (27.27, 27.65) | 27.50 (27.31, 27.69) | 32.72 (32.54, 32.91) |
| Brier Score a | 0.0491 | 0.0486 | 0.0487 |
| Greenwood-Nam-D’agostino (GND) calibration χ2 c | 86.26 | 13.50 | 48.13 |
| P value for GND test | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| Observed events b | 153.94 | 153.94 | 153.94 |
| Predicted events | 46.11 | 118.09 | 74.86 |
| P/O | 0.30 | 0.77 | 0.49 |
| Average predicted risk (%) | 2.5 | 6.4 | 4.1 |
| Average observed risk (%) | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| Proportion of predicted risk> 5% (%) | 16.51 | 54.05 | 29.31 |
| Men | |||
| C statistics (95%CI) | 0.727 (0.689, 0.766) | 0.727 (0.684, 0.770) | 0.740 (0.703, 0.777) |
| D statistics | 1.293 (1.286,1.300) | 1.301 (1.294,1.308) | 1.355 (1.348,1.362) |
| R2 statistics (%) | 28.54 (28.32,28.76) | 28.79 (28.57,29.01) | 30.48 (30.26,30.70) |
| Brier Score a | 0.0525 | 0.0523 | 0.0529 |
| Greenwood-Nam-D’agostino (GND) calibration χ2 d | 39.86 | 4.11 | 13.58 |
| P value for GND test | 0.000 | 0.534 | 0.019 |
| Observed events b | 137.9 | 137.9 | 137.9 |
| Predicted events | 70.87 | 144.72 | 145.8 |
| P/O | 0.51 | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| Average predicted risk (%) | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.7 |
| Average observed risk (%) | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| Proportion of predicted risk> 5% (%) | 55.74 | 49.92 | 57.31 |
Abbreviations: P Predicted events, O Observed events, PCE Pooled Cohort Risk Equations, PAR China-PAR risk equation, FRS Framingham Risk Score 2008
aLower score indicates better accuracy of risk estimates;
bAdjusted using Kaplan-Meier method;
cDeciles were set as 5 to ensure that each decile contained at least 5 events
dDeciles were set as 6 to ensure that each decile contained at least 5 events