Table 3.
HIV incidence among baseline HIV‐negative South African MSM and transgender women who were prospectively followed, Sibanye Health Project, 2015 to 2017
| Participants followed | HIV incident infections | Susceptible person‐years | HIV Infections per 100 person‐years (95% CI) | Unadjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) | Adjusted hazards ratio (95% CI) (N = 153) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 167 | 9 | 144.7 | 6.2 (2.8, 11.8) | – | – |
| City | ||||||
| Cape Town | 80 | 6 | 68.5 | 8.8 (3.2, 19.1) | 2.1 (0.5, 8.4) | 1.4 (0.2, 8.2) |
| Port Elizabeth | 87 | 3 | 76.2 | 3.9 (0.8, 11.5) | Ref | Ref |
| Age | ||||||
| 18 to 19 | 28 | 5 | 22.9 | 21.8 (7.1, 51.0) | 12.6 (1.5, 108.5) | 18.5 (1.7, 196.9) |
| 20 to 24 | 75 | 3 | 65.8 | 4.6 (0.9, 13.3) | 2.6 (0.3, 24.7) | 3.2 (0.2, 41.9) |
| 25+ | 64 | 1 | 56.0 | 1.8 (0.1, 10.0) | Ref | Ref |
| Race | ||||||
| Black | 137 | 8 | 118.4 | 6.8 (2.9, 13.3) | Ref | – |
| Other | 30 | 1 | 26.3 | 3.8 (0.1, 21.2) | 0.6 (0.1, 4.4) | – |
| Gender Identity | ||||||
| Male | 153 | 7 | 133.3 | 5.3 (2.1, 10.8) | Ref | Ref |
| Transgender and Other | 9 | 2 | 6.5 | 31.0 (3.7, 111.2) | 5.5 (1.1, 26.3) | 8.7 (1.3, 57.2) |
| Sexual orientation | ||||||
| Gay/homosexual | 87 | 8 | 75.5 | 10.6 (4.6, 20.9) | 7.0 (0.9, 55.8) | 11.4 (1.0, 132.2) |
| Bisexual, straight, other | 76 | 1 | 66.2 | 1.5 (0.0, 8.4) | Ref | Ref |
| Circumcision status | ||||||
| Full | 45 | 1 | 40.1 | 2.5 (0.1, 13.9) | 0.2 (0.0, 1.5) | – |
| Partial | 24 | 1 | 24.0 | 4.2 (0.1, 23.2) | 0.3 (0.0, 2.4) | – |
| Uncircumcised | 45 | 5 | 36.0 | 13.9 (4.5, 32.4) | Ref | – |
| No exam | 53 | 2 | 44.7 | 4.5 (0.5, 16.2) | 0.3 (0.1, 1.8) | – |
| Education | ||||||
| Did not matric/less than high school | 83 | 9 | 69.6 | 12.9 (6.0, 24.6) | – | – |
| Matric/high school | 58 | 0 | 50.9 | 0.0 | – | – |
| Technical or university education | 24 | 0 | 22.2 | 0.0 | – | – |
| Combined work/student | ||||||
| Full‐time student or full‐time job | 57 | 4 | 49.1 | 8.1 (2.2, 20.9) | Ref | – |
| Part‐time student or part‐time job | 27 | 0 | 24.2 | 0.0 | – | – |
| Not a student and no job | 79 | 5 | 67.5 | 7.4 (2.4, 17.3) | 0.9 (0.2, 3.4) | – |
| Income | ||||||
| No income | 80 | 5 | 66.6 | 7.5 (2.4, 17.5) | Ref | – |
| R1 to R4,800 | 38 | 1 | 32.8 | 3.1 (0.1, 17.0) | 0.4 (0.0, 3.6) | – |
| R4,801 to R9,600 | 17 | 1 | 15.6 | 6.4 (0.2, 35.7) | 0.9 (0.1, 7.5) | – |
| R9,601 to R19,200 | 6 | 0 | 5.6 | 0.0 (–) | – | – |
| R19,201 or more | 15 | 0 | 14.4 | 0.0 (–) | – | – |
| Missing | 11 | 2 | 9.8 | 20.3 (2.5, 73.7) | 2.7 (0.5, 13.9) | – |
| On PrEP | ||||||
| Yes | 82 | 2 | 55.3 | 3.6 (0.4, 13.1) | 0.7 (0.2, 3.0) | 0.6 (0.1, 2.6) |
| No | 85 | 7 | 89.4 | 7.8 (3.1, 16.1) | Ref | Ref |
MSM, men who have sex with men; TGW, transgender women; PrEP, pre‐exposure prophylaxis; STI, sexually transmitted infections. Timeline depiction of key events in the study participationof nine MSM and TGW who seroconverted for HIV during studyfollow‐up. Participants were enrolled for a period of 12 months with visits and HIV and STI screening at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, although the actual dates of study visits varied. Events depicted on the timeline show PrEP‐relatedevents, participant reported sexual risks, STI diagnoses and HIV diagnoses.