Table 4.

Sensitivity analysis. For each parameter, the second column gives the tested range; the third column indicates the change in number of cases compared to the change in case of full opening for that value of the parameter in the indicated range which gives the minimal increase in infection rate, i.e. $(f_{opt}-f_{cc})∕f_{cc}$ vs. $(f_{fo}-f_{cc})∕f_{cc}$ where $(f_{opt}-f_{cc})∕f_{cc}$ is minimal; the fourth column reports the case in which the increase $(f_{opt}-f_{cc})∕f_{cc}$ is maximal. The last column reports the range in which the optimization is effective, but the number of cases doubles at the most, i.e. $(f_{opt}-f_{cc})∕f_{cc}\le min(1∕3(f_{fo}-f_{cc})∕f_{cc},1)$ .

Parameter	Test range	Minimal effect	Maximal effect	Range
$\alpha$ (h${}^{-1}$)	$10^{-7}\text{–}10^{-4}$	$19\text{\%}\text{ vs. }44\text{\%}$	$307\text{\%}\text{ vs. }18925\text{\%}$	$10^{-6}\text{–}10^{-4}$
$\beta$ (h${}^{-1}$)	$1.25\text{–}9.75\times 10^{-2}$	$5\text{\%}\text{ vs. }15\text{\%}$	$329\text{\%}\text{ vs. }626\text{\%}$	$1.25\text{–}5\times 10^{-2}$
$\gamma$ (h${}^{-1}$)	$5.25\text{–}23.25\times 10^{-3}$	$12\text{\%}\text{ vs. }37\text{\%}$	$97\text{\%}\text{ vs. }400\text{\%}$	Whole range
$\delta$ (h${}^{-1}$)	$3.33\text{–}233\times 10^{-5}$	$40\text{\%}\text{ vs. }150\text{\%}$	$61\text{\%}\text{ vs. }256\text{\%}$	Whole range
$\rho$ (h${}^{-1}$)	$8\text{–}200\times 10^{-4}$	$44\text{\%}\text{ vs. }171\text{\%}$	$133\text{\%}\text{ vs. }487\text{\%}$	Whole range
$\eta$	$2\text{–}20\times 10^{-2}$	$43\text{\%}\text{ vs. }167\text{\%}$	$179\text{\%}\text{ vs. }555\text{\%}$	$0.02\text{–}0.45$