Skip to main content
. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Oct 1.
Published in final edited form as: J Clin Epidemiol. 2020 Jun 19;126:65–70. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.06.020

Table 2:

Expected results of two randomized studies, one conducted in the source population if we did not have to recruit participants and one conducted in the trial population under our participation criteria above.

Analysis and treatment arm Participants Deaths Risk of five-year mortality Risk difference for five-year mortality (95% CI)
Source population
Placebo 500,000 175,000 35.00% Ref.
Fakeium 500,000 160,000 32.00% −3.00% (−3.18%, −2.82%)
Source population Black subgroup
Placebo 125,000 43,750 35.00% Ref.
Fakeium 125,000 40,000 32.00% −3.00% (−3.37%, −2.63%)
Source population non-Black subgroup
Placebo 375,000 131,250 35.00% Ref.
Fakeium 375,000 120,000 32.00% −3.00% (−3.21%, −2.79%)
Trial population
Placebo 45,625 15,687 34.38% Ref.
Fakeium 45,625 14,150 31.01% −3.37% (−3.98%, −2.76%)
Trial Black subgroup
Placebo 6,250 2000 32.00% Ref.
Fakeium 6,250 1700 27.20% −4.80% (−6.40%, −3.20%)
Trial non-Black subgroup
Placebo 39,375 13,687 34.76% Ref.
Fakeium 39,375 12,450 31.62% −3.14% (−3.80%, −2.48%)