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. 2020 Sep 23;6(39):eabb5053. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abb5053

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Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

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Fig. 2 — At the beginning of a sequence, the ideal learner has no expectations on where the target will appear. The four locations (A, B, C, and D) are equally probable. At each following trial, probabilities are updated depending on the observed target location. The ideal learner then estimates surprise, predictability, and learning progress.