Figure 8.

The dependence of the reliability of the predictions on the length and start time of the window of calibration data for different noise levels σ_R in the lake phosphorous system. The proportion of predicted times of total resilience loss which are within 500 time points of the actual transition time t_c (a) given a fixed length t₂ − t₁ of the calibration window and averaged over start times t₁ − t_c for t₁ ∈ [0, 600] (b) given a fixed start time t₁ − t_c and averaged over window lengths t₂ − t₁ ∈ [0, 1100]. Each set of results is averaged over 10 independent realizations of the system.