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. 2020 Oct 7;371:m3588. doi: 10.1136/bmj.m3588

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Fig 4 — Refit of the IBMIC March parameterisation based on death data through to June. Top panel shows cumulative deaths in the first wave, using data from National Records of Scotland11 and Connors and Fordham.13 Bottom panel shows demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds per 100 000 people, including an unmitigated second wave. A range of reproduction numbers were considered and values higher than that considered in Report 9 were found to best reproduce the data. A good fit also requires an assumption that the epidemic started in January 2020, earlier than was previously assumed in Report 9. CovidSim is seen to provide a good fit to the data with a reproduction number between 3.0 and 3.5 and predicts that the demand for ICU beds would probably be limited to around 10 per 100 000 people