Table 3.
Predicted total number of UK-wide deaths (in 000s) from coronavirus disease 2019 for different intervention scenarios and different triggers for the interventions based on ICU admissions during the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic
| Trigger* | Time | PC | CI | CI_HQ | CI_HQ_SD | CI_SD | CI_HQ_SDOL70 | PC_CI_HQ_SDOL70 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 1st wave | 418 | 354 | 252 | 21† | 39 | 177 | 75 |
| 0.1 | Total | 496 | 416 | 355 | 440 | 402 | 262† | 357 |
| 0.3 | 1st wave | 456 | 378 | 281 | 32† | 58 | 200 | 104 |
| 0.3 | Total | 495 | 416 | 355 | 437 | 390 | 261† | 356 |
| 1 | 1st wave | 479 | 398 | 310 | 48† | 86 | 223 | 139 |
| 1 | Total | 494 | 416 | 355 | 428 | 370 | 261† | 351 |
| 3 | 1st wave | 490 | 407 | 325 | 70† | 114 | 237 | 172 |
| 3 | Total | 495 | 416 | 355 | 411 | 347 | 262† | 342 |
PC=place closures; CI=case isolation; HQ=household quarantine; SD=social distancing; SDOL70=social distancing of over 70s only.
*
For each trigger value of cumulative ICU cases (000s), the total deaths across the full simulation and during the first wave are shown.
†
Optimal strategies for minimising short term and long term deaths.