Table 3.
Estimated 10-year death-censored graft survival by donor-recipient body surface area ratio (n=136,321)
| Donor Age Category/Donor-Recipient Body Surface Area Ratio | Estimated Probability for 10-yr Graft Survival from Multivariable Modela (95% Confidence Interval) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recipients 18–30 yr, n=8654 | Recipients 31–40 yr, n=16,418 | Recipients 41–50 yr, n=28,436 | Recipients 51–60 yr, n=39,142 | Recipients >60 yr, n=43,671 | |
| Donor age <40 yr | |||||
| BSA ratio, n | 6249 | 10,390 | 15,004 | 17,029 | 15,073 |
| ≥1.00 (reference) | 70% (68 to 72) | 81% (79 to 82) | 85% (84 to 86) | 88% (87 to 89) | 90% (89 to 91) |
| 0.90–0.99 | 72% (69 to 75) | 80% (78 to 82) | 84% (83 to 85) | 87% (86 to 89) | 90% (88 to 91) |
| 0.80–0.89 | 73% (70 to 76) | 79% (77 to 81) | 84% (83 to 86) | 88% (87 to 89) | 89% (87 to 90) |
| <0.80 | 69% (65 to 72) | 80% (78 to 82) | 84% (82 to 85) | 86% (85 to 88) | 88% (86 to 89) |
| Donor age 40–49 yr | |||||
| BSA ratio, n | 1535 | 3633 | 7059 | 9049 | 8814 |
| ≥1.00 (reference) | 73% (70 to 76) | 78% (77 to 80) | 83% (81 to 84) | 85% (84 to 86) | 85% (84 to 86) |
| 0.90–0.99 | 67% (61 to 72) | 76% (73 to 79) | 83% (81 to 85) | 84% (82 to 86) | 86% (84 to 87) |
| 0.80–0.89 | 75% (70 to 80) | 74% (70 to 77) | 82% (80 to 84) | 83% (81 to 85) | 83% (81 to 85) |
| <0.80 | 70% (62 to 77) | 77% (73 to 81) | 78% (75 to 81) | 81% (79 to 83) | 82% (78 to 84) |
| Donor age 50–59 yr | |||||
| BSA ratio, n | 779 | 2108 | 5283 | 9503 | 11,788 |
| ≥1.00 (reference) | 68% (64 to 72) | 75% (72 to 77) | 79% (78 to 81) | 81% (80 to 82) | 82% (81 to 83) |
| 0.90–0.99 | 63% (55 to 70) | 75% (70 to 78) | 76% (74 to 79) | 81% (80 to 83) | 81% (79 to 83) |
| 0.80–0.89 | 64% (55 to 71) | 77% (73 to 80) | 78% (76 to 81) | 80% (77 to 82) | 80% (78 to 82) |
| <0.80 | 50% (38 to 61) | 71% (65 to 76) | 78% (74 to 81) | 80% (77 to 83) | 77% (74 to 80) |
| Donor age ≥60 yr | |||||
| BSA ratio, n | 91 | 287 | 1090 | 3561 | 7996 |
| ≥1.00 (reference) | 58% (46 to 69) | 70% (63 to 76) | 72% (68 to 75) | 77% (75 to 80) | 78% (76 to 79) |
| 0.90–0.99 | 54% (29 to 73) | 65% (52 to 75) | 72% (67 to 77) | 73% (70 to 76) | 77% (74 to 79) |
| 0.80–0.89 | 48% (26 to 67) | 67% (55 to 76) | 78% (72 to 83) | 74% (71 to 77) | 75% (72 to 78) |
| <0.80 | 51% (20 to 75) | 58% (40 to 72) | 73% (65 to 79) | 71% (67 to 75) | 69% (65 to 73) |
BSA, body surface area.
a
The model calculates probability for a White man recipient of a White man donor with pretransplant calculated panel reactive antibodies of 0%, with median HLA mismatch, median cold ischemic time, median time on dialysis, median recipient body mass index, and public insurance coverage in the 2012–2018 era.