Table 1.
Changes in HIV and Combined Gonorrhea & Chlamydia Incidence Following an 18-Month Period of Sexual Distancing, with no Associated Changes in HIV/STI Prevention or Treatment Service Utilization
| HIV | Combined STI | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Incidence RateA (95% SI) | Cumul. IncidenceB (95% SI) | Population ImpactC (95% SI) | Incidence RateA (95% SI) | Cumul. IncidenceB (95% SI) | Population ImpactC in Thousands (95% SI) |
| Base Scenario | ||||||
| No Changes | 1.23 (0.56, 2.05) | 62.3 (54.5, 70.7) | – | 19.39 (8.89, 31.70) | 960.4 (477.0, 1461.6) | – |
| Reduction in Casual Network Degree & One-Time Rate | ||||||
| 25% | 1.00 (0.44, 1.77) | 56.9 (49.8, 64.2) | −488 (−518, −459) | 10.67 (4.76, 18.55) | 644.1 (330.8, 1033.4) | −31.4 (−33.4, −29.3) |
| 50% | 0.79 (0.33, 1.56) | 51.4 (45.1, 58.0) | −966 (−995, −939) | 5.85 (2.40, 9.76) | 445.9 (227.8, 710.9) | −51.8 (−53.5, −50.3) |
| 90% | 0.66 (0.11, 1.32) | 44.5 (37.3, 171.0) | −1547 (−1579, −1515) | 1.30 (0.51, 2.73) | 291.4 (154.2, 1409.6) | −67.7 (−69.1, −66.3) |
| Reduction in Casual Network Degree | ||||||
| 25% | 1.10 (0.44, 1.90) | 58.2 (50.2, 65.5) | −368 (−397, −340) | 14.33 (6.86, 24.59) | 728.1 (384.7, 1186.3) | −22.2 (−24.2, −20.2) |
| 50% | 0.90 (0.33, 1.68) | 53.2 (46.7, 61.3) | −781 (−812, −752) | 10.54 (5.01, 18.05) | 593.7 (332.6, 945.5) | −37.1 (−39.0, −35.3) |
| 90% | 0.67 (0.22, 1.45) | 46.3 (38.8, 222.4) | −1381 (−1417, −1348) | 2.69 (1.04, 5.04) | 341.3 (180.4, 1948.7) | −62.4 (−64.2, −60.9) |
| Reduction in One-Time Rate | ||||||
| 25% | 1.12 (0.45, 2.01) | 60.5 (53.1, 68.8) | −169 (−199, −141) | 13.69 (6.24, 22.20) | 783.4 (400.1, 1186.9) | −17.7 (−19.8, −15.6) |
| 50% | 1.11 (0.44, 1.88) | 58.7 (51.6, 67.1) | −322 (−352, −292) | 9.52 (3.71, 15.84) | 655.2 (298.8, 1028.8) | −30.9 (−32.9, −28.9) |
| 90% | 0.89 (0.33, 1.57) | 55.9 (49.5, 63.6) | −561 (−588, −532) | 4.90 (2.07, 9.12) | 470.8 (223.1, 785.3) | −49.7 (−51.4, −48.0) |
A
Standardized rate per 100 person-years at risk at 2.5 years
B
Standardized cumulative incidence over 5 years per 1000 susceptible MSM
C
Difference, compared to base scenario, in 5-year cumulative incidence for total susceptible population of MSM in Atlanta